铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250521

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The uncertainty of US fiscal policy, sovereign credit rating adjustment, and geopolitical issues have increased market risk aversion, leading to a rebound in precious metal prices, but the upward space is still to be observed [3][4] - The weakening of the US dollar index and China's central bank's continuous introduction of loose policies support copper prices to oscillate at a high level, and it is expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short term [5][6] - Aluminum prices are under pressure to rise further at high levels, and are expected to oscillate in the short term due to factors such as downstream consumption waiting and seasonal inventory accumulation [7] - Alumina is expected to continue its favorable trend due to uncertainties in the ore end and improved supply - demand fundamentals [8][9] - Zinc prices are boosted by the decline of the US dollar, but the upward space is limited due to the expected release of supply in the second half of the year [10][11] - Lead prices are weakly oscillating due to the marginal weakening of the supply - demand balance, with improved supply and lackluster consumption [12][13] - Tin prices are expected to continue to run strongly in the short term, supported by the decline of the US dollar and restricted by raw material supply [15] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a low - level weak oscillation due to increased inventory pressure and weak fundamentals [16][17] - Lithium carbonate prices may rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high levels [18][19] - Nickel prices are oscillating due to lack of market guidance, with strong support from the ore end and weak demand [20] - Crude oil prices are oscillating, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Iran - nuclear agreement and the results of the OPEC+ meeting [21] - Steel prices are expected to oscillate due to weak supply and demand in the steel market [22][23] - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate mainly, with a decline in port inventory and a relatively loose supply [24] - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to continue weak oscillations due to factors such as increased Brazilian exports and sufficient domestic supply [25][26] - Palm oil prices are oscillating and rebounding, and are expected to continue to oscillate, with general export performance in the producing areas [27][28] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: Fed officials warn that tariffs may push up prices, but the impact on inflation remains to be observed; Trump pressures the Republican Party to support the tax - cut bill, and the House of Representatives plans to vote this week; Japan may accept US tariff cuts. The US dollar index falls below 100, the 10Y US Treasury yield declines, the US stock market corrects slightly, and the gold price rises nearly 2% [2] - Domestic: In April, the general public budget revenue increased year - on - year, and the necessity of short - term fiscal incremental policies decreased. The central bank implements a moderately loose monetary policy, and the bank deposit interest rate is lowered [2] 3.1.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices generally rose on Tuesday. The increase in market risk aversion and the weakening of the US dollar index boosted precious metal prices. China's gold imports in April increased by 73% [3] 3.1.3 Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper and London copper oscillated. The decline of the US dollar index and China's central bank's reduction of LPR supported copper prices. The production of copper products in China from January to April increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and a copper mine in the Congo (Kinshasa) suspended underground operations [5] 3.1.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum fell slightly, and London aluminum rose. The reduction of LPR and the decline of the US dollar index supported aluminum prices, but downstream consumption was waiting, and inventory accumulation was expected to increase [7] 3.1.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the alumina futures main contract rose. Uncertainties in Guinea's mines may support the price of bauxite, and alumina is expected to continue its favorable trend [9] 3.1.6 Zinc - On Tuesday, Shanghai zinc oscillated and London zinc rose. In April, zinc concentrate imports increased significantly, and refined zinc imports decreased year - on - year. The decline of the US dollar boosted zinc prices, but the upward space was limited [10][11] 3.1.7 Lead - On Tuesday, Shanghai lead oscillated. In April, China's lead exports and imports increased, and lead - acid battery exports increased. The supply - demand balance of lead weakened marginally, and lead prices oscillated weakly [12][13] 3.1.8 Tin - On Tuesday, Shanghai tin rose at night. The processing fees of tin mines in Yunnan and Guangxi were stable at a low level, and the decline of the US dollar supported tin prices to break through the moving - average pressure [15] 3.1.9 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, the industrial silicon main contract continued to decline. The inventory pressure increased, and the supply - demand structure was oversupplied. It is expected to maintain a low - level weak oscillation [16][17] 3.1.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Tuesday, the price of carbonate lithium oscillated. The import of carbonate lithium in April increased significantly, and the short - term price may rebound due to factors such as the reduction of short - selling positions at the end of the session [18][19] 3.1.11 Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices oscillated weakly. The reduction of LPR and other interest rates had limited impact on nickel prices. The supply of nickel mines was not loose, and the demand for stainless steel was weak [20] 3.1.12 Crude Oil - On Tuesday, crude oil oscillated strongly. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation was deadlocked, and the market expected OPEC to approve a significant increase in production in July. Short - term oil prices are expected to oscillate [21] 3.1.13 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated. The spot trading volume was average, and the cost of steel mills decreased slightly. The real - estate investment continued to decline, and steel prices are expected to oscillate [22][23] 3.1.14 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated. The port inventory decreased, the spot demand was fair, and the supply was relatively loose. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate mainly [24] 3.1.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, bean and rapeseed meal futures rose slightly. Brazil's soybean exports in May are expected to increase, and the strong precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas has limited impact on sowing. Domestic oil - mill operating rates have rebounded, and double - meal prices are expected to continue weak oscillations [25][26] 3.1.16 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures rose. The export demand in the producing areas increased moderately, and short - term funds entered the market. Palm oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate [27][28] 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The trading data of various metal varieties on May 20, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests, are provided [29][30] 3.3 Industrial Data Perspective - The industrial data of various metals on May 20 and May 19 are provided, including warehouse receipts, inventories, spot prices, and price differentials [31][34]