铁矿石：中美关税谈判对价格的影响

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent rebound of iron ore prices was due to the "strong reality" not weakening after the "weak expectation" drove the prices down, and the improved expectation after the better - than - expected progress of China - US tariff negotiations led to the upward correction of the futures prices [3][7]. - After the price rebound, the limited upward space of high - level hot metal output makes it difficult for prices to rise significantly. In the short term, prices may fluctuate in a range, and after the inflection point of the "strong reality" appears, the futures valuation may move closer to the "weak expectation" pricing [4][16][27]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Impact of China - US Tariff Negotiations on the Original Rhythm - Since late February, the iron ore futures prices showed a trend of "decline - sideways oscillation - decline again". Macro - level positive news and policy disturbances could cause price drops, while high - level hot metal output and inventory depletion provided short - term support after the decline. The price generally followed the pattern of "weak expectation" driving the decline and "strong reality" providing support [7]. - In the past two years, the decline of iron ore prices was often preceded by expectations, followed by the fundamentals. This time, the price rebound was due to the unchanged "strong reality" and the improved expectation [7]. 3.2 Marginal Changes in Supply and Demand - Supply Side: The second quarter is the traditional peak shipping season for overseas mines, and the shipping volume usually increases seasonally. The latest weekly shipping volume reached 3347.8 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase to a high level in the same period. Although affected by hurricanes in the first quarter, Australian mines did not plan to significantly cut their annual shipping targets. The second quarter can be used to observe the marginal increase in iron ore supply [8]. - Demand Side: The current hot metal output shows signs of peaking but is expected to remain above 240 tons in the next few weeks. To see the transmission of "declining terminal demand - shrinking steel mill profits - reducing blast furnace production and hot metal output" requires a cycle. The industry maintains a cautious attitude, and the market's view of "weak expectation" has not fundamentally reversed [15][16]. 3.3 Impact of Coke and Coal on Iron Ore - Coke and coal are in a weak position in the black - chain industry. Their continuous price decline since the beginning of the year has transferred some profit space to iron ore, which is one of the reasons why iron ore prices decline in a more oscillatory manner [26]. 3.4 Future Trends - After the easing of China - US trade tensions, the improved expectation led to the upward rebound of iron ore prices. However, due to the limited upward space of high - level hot metal output, the price is likely to fluctuate in the short term. After the inflection point of the "strong reality" appears, the futures valuation may move closer to the "weak expectation" pricing [27].