铅价继续震荡回落，下游企业存在逢低补库行为

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View - The domestic lead ore supply remains relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ore. The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing outstandingly, with the support of demand from mobile base stations and data centers. The operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reach 80 - 100%. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. The current lead price should be treated with a volatile mindset, and the Pb2506 contract range is between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Market News and Important Data Spot - On May 20, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$18.06/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,375 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,225 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,575 yuan/ton [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 25 yuan/ton to SMM 1 lead or at a discount of 180 - 170 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract for ex-factory sales. In Hunan, smelters quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for rigid demand transactions, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. Smelters in Anhui and Jiangxi tried to hold prices for sales, quoting at a premium of 100 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex-factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex-factory supplies were traded at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. As the lead price continued to weaken, apart from a small number of downstream enterprises making purchases at low prices, most enterprises still made purchases mainly for rigid demand. The spot market improved slightly compared to the previous day [2] Futures - On May 20, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,860 yuan/ton and closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 24,386 lots, a decrease of 2,507 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 22,798 lots, a decrease of 4,590 lots compared to the previous trading day. The price fluctuated during the day, reaching a maximum of 16,880 yuan/ton and a minimum of 16,740 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,920 yuan/ton and closed at 16,905 yuan/ton, a 0.48% increase compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Inventory - On May 20, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 59,000 tons, a change of 3,000 tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 20, the LME lead inventory was 245,750 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]