BILIBILI(BILI) 招银国际·2025-05-21 02:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Bilibili, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [21]. Core Insights - Bilibili's total revenue for 1Q25 increased by 24% year-over-year to RMB7.0 billion, aligning with Bloomberg consensus estimates. The adjusted net income reached RMB362 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of RMB456 million in 1Q24, driven by gross profit margin expansion and controlled R&D expenses [1][2]. - For 2Q25, the expectation is for continued strong performance with a projected 20% year-over-year revenue growth, supported by advertising and mobile games [1]. - The target price has been fine-tuned to US18.15, based on a 25x FY26E non-GAAP PE [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Growth: - FY23A: RMB22,528 million - FY24A: RMB26,832 million (19.1% YoY growth) - FY25E: RMB30,584 million (14.0% YoY growth) [2][18]. - Gross Margin: - FY23A: 24.2% - FY24A: 32.7% - FY25E: 36.9% [2][18]. - Adjusted Net Profit: - FY23A: (RMB3,533.8 million) - FY24A: (RMB22.1 million) - FY25E: RMB2,243.8 million [2][18]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - FY25E: 534.14 RMB cents, compared to consensus EPS of 4.53 RMB [2][18]. Business Segment Performance - Value-Added Services (VAS): Revenue grew by 11% YoY to RMB2.81 billion, driven by live streaming and innovative monetization methods [7]. - Advertising Revenue: Increased by 20% YoY to RMB2.00 billion, with performance ads growing over 30% YoY [7]. - Mobile Games Revenue: Strong growth of 76% YoY to RMB1.73 billion, attributed to the success of the game "SanMou" [7]. Margin Expansion - The overall gross profit margin improved by 8 percentage points YoY to 36.3% in 1Q25, with adjusted operating profit margin rising by 14 percentage points YoY to 4.9% [7][8]. Valuation and Target Price - The SOTP-derived target price of US12.7 (48% of total valuation) - VAS: US7.2 (27%) [11][12][13]. Market Data - Market capitalization stands at approximately US29.66 and a low of US65.4 million [3]. User Engagement Metrics - Monthly Active Users (MAUs) grew by 8% YoY to 368 million, with average daily time spent on the platform increasing by 3% YoY to 108 minutes [7]. Future Outlook - Management is optimistic about sustaining growth in mobile games, particularly with upcoming content releases for "SanMou" [7]. - For 2Q25, total revenue is expected to reach RMB7.36 billion, with mobile games, advertising, and VAS revenue projected to grow by 63%, 18%, and 11% YoY, respectively [7].