煤焦早报：焦煤现货下调，夜盘震荡上行-20250521

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "sideways", and for coking coal is "sideways with a weak bias" [1] Core Viewpoints - The economic data in April shows that the number of cities with rising real - estate prices has decreased, and the time for housing prices to bottom out has been postponed again. Industrial added - value has declined, and the financing demand of the real economy has decreased. However, the government's leverage increase continues, and subsequent fiscal policies may bring surprises [4] - For coking coal, supply is the biggest negative factor. For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive. The iron - water output has declined slightly this week, and the first - round price cut for coke spot has been implemented. Without obvious signs of crude - steel production cuts and fiscal - policy stimulus, coal and coke are likely to maintain a weak and sideways pattern [5] - In the short term, coal and coke are in a downward trend, but as the basis and spread strengthen, the resistance to further decline of the 09 contract will increase. It is not cost - effective to chase short positions. It is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and add positions after confirming the bottom [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal 1. Supply and Demand - Domestic coking - coal mine operating rates have declined slightly but remain at a high level for the year. The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.23% (+0.18), and the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 91.76% (-0.33), with the daily average iron - water output at 244.77 tons (-0.87) [2][3] 2. Inventory - Upstream inventories are accumulating, and downstream inventories are decreasing. The refined - coal inventory of 523 mines is 410.45 million tons (+20.02), the refined - coal inventory of coal - washing plants is 203.26 million tons (+5.98), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 791.21 million tons (+4), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 752.56 million tons (-22.61), and the port inventory is 306.09 million tons (+8.28) [2] 3. Spot Price and Spread - The spot price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 970 yuan/ton (-45), the active contract is 838.5 yuan/ton (-6.5), the basis is 151.5 yuan/ton (-38.5), and the 9 - 1 spread is - 12.5 yuan/ton (-2) [1] Coke 1. Supply and Demand - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.23% (+0.18). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 91.76% (-0.33), and the daily average iron - water output is 244.77 tons (-0.87) [3] 2. Inventory - The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 65.46 million tons (+0.37), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 663.8 million tons (-7.23), and the port inventory is 225.11 million tons (-3.97) [3] 3. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1390 yuan/ton (-0), the active contract is 1407.5 yuan/ton (-20.5), the basis is 88.37 yuan/ton (+20.5), and the 9 - 1 spread is - 30 yuan/ton (-3.5) [3]