宏源期货品种策略日报-20250521

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The ethylene glycol market is currently in a weak state. In the short - term, it will maintain a slow - moving trend, mainly focusing on destocking, but the destocking efficiency is relatively low. The prices of polyester products such as polyester staple fiber, polyester chips, and polyester filaments are following the downward trend, and the production and sales of polyester are still sluggish. The reduction in production of polyester and the delay in equipment maintenance are affecting the demand for ethylene glycol [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Information - Crude oil price: On May 20, 2025, the price of crude oil was $569.63 per ton, with a daily increase of 0.04% [1]. - Ethylene price index: On May 20, 2025, the price was $781.00 per ton, with no change [1]. - Ethylene glycol price: In the East China region on May 21, 2025, the ex - factory price of ethylene glycol was $600.00 per ton, with a 5550.00% increase compared to the previous value; on May 20, 2025, the price was $4570.00 per ton, with no change [1]. - Polyester price index: On May 20, 2025, the polyester price index was $8900.00 per ton, with no change; the polyester staple fiber price index was $6620.00 per ton, with a 0.68% increase [1]. 3.2 Operating Rate and Load Rate - The operating rate of oil - based ethylene glycol was 54.94% on May 20, 2025, with no change; the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 48.18% on May 20, 2025, with no change [1]. - The load rate of the PTA industry factory was 91.11% on May 20, 2025, with a 0.01% decrease; the load rate of the weaving machine industry in Zhejiang and Jiangsu PTA was 68.10% on May 20, 2025, with no change [1]. 3.3 Market Trends and Trading - The ethylene glycol market is weak. The night - session and intraday trading show that the contract is at a premium, and the price is around $100 - $105 per ton. The external market of ethylene glycol is also weak, with the price of recent ship cargoes falling to around $0.98 per ton [2]. - The trading volume of ethylene glycol is affected by the reduction in production of polyester and the delay in equipment maintenance. The enthusiasm of market participants has decreased, and the market has entered a cooling - off period [2]. 3.4 Impact on Related Products - The prices of polyester products such as polyester staple fiber, polyester chips, and polyester filaments are following the downward trend, with price decreases of 0.68%, 1.64%, and 0.68% respectively on May 20, 2025 [1][2]. - The production and sales of polyester are still sluggish, and the sentiment in the polyester industry has not fully recovered [2].