安粮期货投资早参-20250521

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Current spot price of Zhangjiagang Yijiang first - grade soybean oil is 8310 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - South American new - crop soybean is likely to have a bumper harvest. The USDA May report shows the 2025/26 soybean yield forecast is 52.5 bushels/acre, compared to 50.7 bushels/acre in 2024/25 [1] - The mid - term destocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance, soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [1] - The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot prices of 43 soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 2850 yuan/ton (-30), 2860 yuan/ton (-30), and 2870 yuan/ton (-10) respectively [2] - A phased Sino - US trade agreement has been reached, but long - term contradictions remain. The market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are in the peak export period [2] - Soybean supply is gradually recovering, and the oil mill operating rate is increasing. The supply of soybean meal is expected to change from tight to loose. The inventory of soybean meal is accumulating slowly in the short term [2] - Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Group 3: Corn - Spot prices of new corn vary in different regions, such as 2198 yuan/ton in Northeast and Inner Mongolia, 2419 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai [3] - The Sino - US joint statement on tariff reduction has a short - term impact on corn prices, and the USDA May report is bearish for US corn futures. Domestically, the supply pressure has eased, but downstream demand is weak [3] - The price of domestic corn is mainly determined by its own fundamentals, and the short - term decline is expected to be limited [3] Group 4: Copper - The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78210 - 781470, up 230, with a premium of 340 - 440. The imported copper ore index is - 43.05, up 0.06 [4] - Global tariff tensions are easing, and domestic policies are supportive. However, raw material issues persist, and copper inventory in China is declining rapidly, making the market more complex [4] - Copper prices have not completely escaped the influence of moving averages, and the upper limit of the moving average system is set as the overall defense line [4] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 63350 (-900) yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 62850 (-1550) yuan/ton. The price difference is 2050 (+650) yuan/ton [5] - The cost of lithium carbonate production has decreased, but the profit margin has not expanded. Supply is high, demand is improving but not strong enough, and inventory is accumulating [6] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [7] Group 6: Steel - The price of Shanghai rebar is 3170, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [8] - The fundamentals of steel are improving, and the cost is fluctuating. Social and mill inventories are decreasing, and the market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand [8] - A long - position strategy at low levels is recommended as the negative feedback of the black market is gradually reflected in the price [8] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot prices of main coking coal and metallurgical coke are 1205 yuan/ton and 1340 yuan/ton respectively. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and that of coke is 246.10 million tons [9] - Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, inventory is slowly accumulating, and the profit of coke is approaching the break - even point [9] - Coking coal and coke may oscillate weakly at low levels due to the loose supply [9] Group 8: Iron Ore - The Platts iron ore index is 100.35, and the prices of Qingdao PB (61.5) powder and Australian powder ore (62% Fe) are 762 and 763 respectively [10] - Supply is slightly decreasing, demand is mixed, and the US tariff policy adds uncertainty. The market is influenced by multiple factors [10] - The iron ore 2509 contract may oscillate in the short term, and investors are advised to be cautious [10] Group 9: Crude Oil - The OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The market expects oversupply, and the price may decline in the long - term. The WTI main contract may oscillate around 55 - 65 dollars/barrel [11] - The resurgence of the US - Iran negotiation and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating add uncertainty to the oil market [11] Group 10: Rubber - The supply of rubber is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the production season. The US auto tariff may suppress global demand [12][13] - Rubber may oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate and inventory changes [12][13] Group 11: PVC - The spot price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The production enterprise operating rate has decreased, demand is still weak, and inventory has decreased [14] - The PVC futures price may oscillate at a low level due to the weak fundamentals [14][15] Group 12: Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1422.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The operating rate and production of soda ash have decreased, and inventory is slightly decreasing. Demand is average [16] - The soda ash futures may continue to oscillate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to device maintenance and emergencies [16]