SHRC(600392) Minsheng Securities·2025-05-21 02:43Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is advancing its global resource layout by acquiring Peak Rare Earths Limited, which holds a significant stake in the Ngualla rare earth mine project in Tanzania, one of the largest and highest-grade rare earth deposits globally [1][2][4]. - The Ngualla project is expected to commence production in Q3 2027, following a final investment decision anticipated in Q1 2025 [2][15]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from rising rare earth prices and increasing production capacity, with projected net profits of 607 million, 655 million, and 763 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Event: Acquisition of Peak Rare Earths Limited - The company announced its intention to acquire 100% of Peak Rare Earths Limited to expedite the development of the Ngualla rare earth mine project [1][9]. 2. Ngualla Rare Earth Mine Overview - The Ngualla mine, located in Tanzania, has a resource estimate of 214.4 million tons with an average grade of 2.15%, translating to approximately 461,000 tons of rare earth oxides (REO) [2][10]. - The mine's total reserves are estimated at 18.5 million tons with an average grade of 4.8%, equating to about 88,700 tons of REO [2][12]. 3. Mine Efficiency Analysis - Post-acquisition, the company will hold 100% of Peak and 84% of the Ngualla project, with a total capital expenditure estimated at $287 million [3][23]. - The mine is projected to have an operational lifespan of 24 years, with an average annual production of 16,200 tons of REO and total operating costs of $76.7 million per year [3][27]. 4. Global Resource Layout - The company has diversified its resource portfolio, including acquisitions in Tanzania and stakes in various mining companies globally, enhancing its rare earth business [30][32]. 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see revenue growth from its rare earth and zircon-titanium businesses, with projected revenues of 12.9 billion, 14.8 billion, and 16.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][44]. - The report highlights a stable cost structure and anticipates a recovery in rare earth prices, supporting the company's profitability outlook [4][44].