纸浆数据日报-20250521

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The cost - support effect of pulp foreign - market quotations has weakened, demand from downstream paper mills remains rigid, end - market demand is weak, and inventory has shifted from a destocking trend to a restocking trend. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see as current macro - level positives have not yet translated into finished - paper demand [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - Futures Prices: On May 20, 2025, SP2601 was 5334, up 0.30% day - on - day and 1.91% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5410, up 0.37% day - on - day and 2.54% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5322, up 0.23% day - on - day and 1.91% week - on - week [1] - Spot Prices: On May 20, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6250, down 0.79% day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian coniferous pulp was 5450, unchanged day - on - day and up 2.83% week - on - week; Golden broadleaf pulp was 4200, down 1.18% day - on - day and unchanged week - on - week [1] - Foreign - Market Quotes (USD): In May 2025, the quote for Chilean Silver Star was 770, down 6.67% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 630, up 3.28% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 690, unchanged month - on - month [1] - Import Costs: In May 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 6289, down 6.62% month - on - month; Tianxi etc. was 5154, up 3.25% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5640, unchanged month - on - month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - Supply - Import Volume: In April 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp imports were 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in April 2025 was 1502 tons, compared with 1543 tons in March [1] - Domestic Output: On May 15, 2025, the domestic output of broadleaf pulp was 20.7 tons; the output of chemimechanical pulp was 20.1 tons [1] - Inventory - Pulp Port Inventory: On May 15, 2025, pulp port inventory was 219.8 tons, up 8.0% from the previous period, shifting from a destocking trend to a restocking trend [1] - Delivery Warehouse Inventory: On May 15, 2025, delivery warehouse inventory was 27.00 tons [1] - Demand - Finished - Paper Output: On May 15, 2025, the output of offset paper was 20.00 tons; coated paper was 7.70 tons; tissue paper was 27.70 tons; white cardboard was 27.90 tons [1] Pulp Valuation Data - Basis: On May 20, 2025, the Russian coniferous pulp basis was 40, with a quantile level of 0.792; the Silver Star basis was 840, with a quantile level of 0.971 [1] - Import Profit: On May 20, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 39, with a quantile level of 0.542; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 954, with a quantile level of 0.078 [1] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - Supply: Pulp foreign - market prices have dropped significantly, weakening the cost - support effect [1] - Demand: The prices of major pulp - made papers have continued to fall, the positive impact of the easing of the Sino - US trade war has not been reflected in finished - paper output, downstream paper mills maintain rigid demand, and end - market demand remains weak [1] - Inventory: As of May 15, 2025, pulp port inventory has shifted from a destocking trend to a restocking trend [1]