房地产行业2025年4月70个大中城市房价数据点评

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [27]. Core Insights - In April 2025, the new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.4%. The number of cities experiencing price declines for new homes increased to 45, and for second-hand homes, it rose to 64 [5][11]. - The report highlights that the price decline in April represents a weakening trend compared to the previous months, with the average decline for new homes being 0.30% and for second-hand homes being 0.45% [5][11]. - The report suggests that maintaining a more relaxed policy is crucial to stabilize the real estate market, emphasizing the importance of effective policy implementation [5][11]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In April 2025, new home prices in first-tier cities remained flat, while second-hand home prices shifted from an increase to a decrease. Specifically, Shanghai saw a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, while Beijing increased by 0.1%. In contrast, Shenzhen and Guangzhou experienced declines of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively [5][11]. - For second-tier cities, new home prices remained stable, with 52% of these cities either maintaining or increasing prices. However, second-hand home prices fell by 0.4%, with only 6% of cities seeing price stability or increases [5][11]. - Third-tier cities also saw new home prices decline by 0.2%, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.4% [5][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on four main lines of investment: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Binjiang Group and Greentown China [5]. 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate Group [5]. 3. Companies with operational or strategic changes, including Gemdale Corporation and Longfor Group [5]. 4. Real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market, such as Beike-W and Wo Ai Wo Jia [5].