光大期货能化商品日报-20250521

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][3][5][6][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: On Tuesday, WTI and Brent prices declined, while SC2507 rose. News of Israel's potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities led to a sharp early - morning jump. API data showed an increase in US crude inventories and decreases in gasoline and distillate inventories. Kazakhstan's production growth and OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production increase, along with the uncertainty of US - Iran negotiations, cause the oil price to continue oscillating [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Tuesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil rose, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil fell. In April 2025, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may remain tight before June, and the demand is fair. High - sulfur fuel oil inventory is being digested due to increased summer power generation demand. The volatility of the absolute prices of FU and LU is expected to increase, and the strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread can be continued [2]. - Asphalt: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose. In June, supply may increase due to profit recovery, but some refinery turnarounds may temporarily reduce the operating rate. Demand is supported to some extent by order deliveries and project starts in the north, but is weak in the south, especially with the upcoming rainy season. The absolute price volatility of BU is expected to increase, and it may be a relatively weak product among oil products, so a strategy of shorting the cracking spread can be considered [2]. - Polyester: TA509, EG2509, and PX futures all declined on Tuesday. In April 2025, online retail sales and social consumer goods retail data showed mixed trends. An MEG plant had a power outage, and a PTA plant's restart was postponed. PX supply is tight, and PTA and ethylene glycol are expected to oscillate in the short term [3][5]. - Rubber: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts showed different trends. In April 2025, China's synthetic rubber and rubber tire production increased year - on - year. The export of rubber tires also increased. Qingdao's rubber inventory decreased slightly. Due to low - yield at the beginning of the domestic and foreign tapping seasons and rainfall in overseas areas, the raw material price is supported, and the natural rubber price will oscillate in the short term [5][6]. - Methanol: On Tuesday, methanol prices showed different levels in different regions. The domestic supply decreased due to increased plant maintenance but remained at a high level in the past five years. The Iranian plant load dropped, and the far - month arrival volume is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering. The MTO plant operating rate changed little, and the port and inland inventory levels are low. The methanol price volatility may increase [6]. - Polyolefins: On Tuesday, polyolefin prices were in a certain range. Currently, there are many upstream turnarounds, so the overall supply pressure is not large. With the tariff reduction, downstream enterprises increased raw material procurement, and the inventory decreased. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels, so polyolefins are expected to oscillate [9]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Tuesday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Maintenance devices will resume operation, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. Domestic real - estate construction is temporarily stable, keeping the开工 rate of pipes and profiles relatively stable, but demand will weaken as the real - estate construction enters the off - season. In the short term, the fundamental pressure is relieved due to maintenance disturbances, but the PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: WTI 6 - month contract closed down $0.13 to $62.56/barrel, a 0.21% decline; Brent 7 - month contract closed down $0.16 to $65.38/barrel, a 0.24% decline; SC2507 closed up 3.2 yuan to 467.8 yuan/barrel, a 0.69% increase. US intelligence on Israel's potential strike on Iran led to a nearly 3% jump in early - morning oil prices. API data showed a 2.499 - million - barrel increase in US crude inventories, a 3.238 - million - barrel decrease in gasoline inventories, and a 1.401 - million - barrel decrease in distillate inventories. Kazakhstan's May oil production increased by 2%, ignoring OPEC+ pressure [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Tuesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2507) rose 0.86% to 3042 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2507) fell 0.56% to 3556 yuan/ton. In April 2025, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports were 525,500 tons, a 21.07% month - on - month decline and a 54.11% year - on - year increase. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may remain tight before June, and the demand is fair. High - sulfur fuel oil inventory is being digested [2]. - Asphalt: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract (BU2506) rose 0.8% to 3541 yuan/ton. In June, supply may increase due to profit recovery, but some refinery turnarounds may temporarily reduce the operating rate. Demand is supported in the north but weak in the south, especially with the upcoming rainy season [2]. - Polyester: TA509 closed down 0.92% at 4732 yuan/ton; EG2509 closed down 1.39% at 4413 yuan/ton. In April 2025, online retail sales and social consumer goods retail data showed mixed trends. An MEG plant had a power outage, and a PTA plant's restart was postponed. PX supply is tight, and PTA and ethylene glycol are expected to oscillate [3][5]. - Rubber: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts showed different trends. In April 2025, China's synthetic rubber production was 743,000 tons, a 15.2% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative production from January to April was 2.947 million tons, an 11.3% year - on - year increase. The rubber tire production in April was 102 million pieces, a 3.1% year - on - year increase. The export of rubber tires also increased. Qingdao's rubber inventory decreased slightly [5][6]. - Methanol: On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2315 yuan/ton, the Inner Mongolia north - line price was 2067.5 yuan/ton, the CFR China price was $260 - 264/ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $330 - 335/ton. The domestic supply decreased due to increased plant maintenance but remained at a high level in the past five years. The Iranian plant load dropped, and the far - month arrival volume is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering [6]. - Polyolefins: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene was 7130 - 7350 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is not large due to many upstream turnarounds, and demand increased with tariff reduction, leading to inventory decline. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels [9]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Tuesday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Maintenance devices will resume operation, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. Real - estate construction is temporarily stable, but demand will weaken as it enters the off - season [9]. 3.2 Day - to - Day Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on May 21, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The API reported that for the week ending May 16, US crude inventories increased by 2.499 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.238 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.401 million barrels [13]. - Trade and shipping data showed that Russia's April seaborne fuel oil and vacuum gas oil exports increased by 8.5% month - on - month to about 4 million tons, as offline primary refining capacity decreased by 21% compared to March [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and para - xylene [15][16][17]. - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, para - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [31][36][37]. - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European - line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [46][48][51]. - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, including crude oil internal - external spreads, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [62][64][66]. - 4.5 Production Profits: The report presents the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, and LLDPE production profit [71][75]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - Zhong Meiyan: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy - chemical research, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over a decade of experience in the futures derivatives market [77]. - Du Bingqin: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University. She has won multiple awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [78]. - Di Yilin: An analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple awards and is good at data analysis [79]. - Peng Haibo: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with a master's degree in engineering from China University of Petroleum (East China), a title of intermediate economist, and experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [80].