HTSC·2025-05-21 04:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [7] Core Views - The asymmetric interest rate cuts have alleviated pressure on interest margins, with the central bank lowering the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 basis points [1] - The reduction in deposit rates has a more significant impact than the LPR cuts, providing a net positive effect on banks' interest margins and net profit growth [2] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a favorable policy environment aimed at economic recovery, with structural opportunities in high-quality banks [5] Summary by Sections Interest Rate Adjustments - The central bank's recent interest rate cuts are expected to positively influence banks' interest margins, with estimated impacts of +2.3 basis points and +1.4 basis points on interest margins for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2][22] - The reduction in deposit rates has been more pronounced than the LPR cuts, with large banks reducing rates across various deposit terms [2][3] Deposit Trends - The banking sector is approaching a peak in deposit re-pricing, which is expected to improve funding costs as significant amounts of fixed-term deposits mature [3] - Despite the positive adjustments in deposit rates, there are concerns about the attractiveness of deposit products, which may lead to liquidity risks for banks [4] Policy Environment - Recent policy measures, including interest rate cuts and structural monetary tools, are expected to support economic stability and improve the banking environment [5] - The report highlights the potential for high dividend yields in large banks, making them attractive for investment [5] Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several banks for investment, including: - Hangzhou Bank (600926 CH) - Overweight - Shanghai Bank (601229 CH) - Buy - Chengdu Bank (601838 CH) - Buy - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (3618 HK) - Buy - China Merchants Bank (600036 CH) - Buy - Industrial Bank (601166 CH) - Buy - Agricultural Bank of China (601288 CH) - Overweight [9][24]