阿里影业：大麦及IP衍生强劲，电影业务暂承压-20250521

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 0.75 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company's FY25 revenue reached RMB 6.702 billion, a 33% increase year-on-year, exceeding expectations by 8% due to strong performance from the ticketing platform and IP derivatives. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 364 million, a 27.7% increase but below the expected RMB 631 million due to an investment impairment of RMB 428 million [1][5]. - The ticketing platform, DaMai, showed significant growth with FY25 revenue of RMB 2.057 billion, a remarkable 236% increase, driven by the overall recovery of the performance market and the integration of the platform [2]. - The film-related segment saw a decline in revenue to RMB 2.712 billion, down 10%, primarily due to underperforming film projects and a weak overall film industry in 2024. The company has a substantial pipeline with 40 films and 20 series in reserve [3]. - The IP derivatives business reported revenue of RMB 1.433 billion, a 73% increase, attributed to a significant rise in retail sales of licensed IP products, with the IP matrix expanding to include several high-profile global IPs [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY25 revenue was RMB 6.702 billion, up 33% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 364 million, reflecting a 27.7% increase. Adjusted EBITA was RMB 809 million, a 61% increase [1][5]. - Revenue projections for FY26-28 are set at RMB 7.236 billion, RMB 8.307 billion, and RMB 9.342 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to reach RMB 865 million, RMB 1.081 billion, and RMB 1.255 billion [7][19]. Business Segments - DaMai's ticketing revenue for FY25 was RMB 2.057 billion, with a segment performance increase of 339% [2]. - The film-related segment's revenue was RMB 2.712 billion, down 10%, with a significant drop in segment profit to RMB 73 million, down 91% [3]. - The IP derivatives segment generated RMB 1.433 billion in revenue, a 73% increase, with a segment profit of RMB 380 million, up 75% [4]. Valuation and Forecast - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 23X for FY26, with a target price of HKD 0.75, reflecting an increase from the previous target of HKD 0.65 [5][8].