Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music [4] Core Views - The online music revenue is expected to increase due to the growth in paid users and ARPPU, leading to an overall improvement in profit margins. The forecasted net profit for the years 2025-2027 is 10.41 billion, 10.14 billion, and 11.16 billion RMB respectively, with a target price of 94.86 HKD [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 27,752 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of -2.1%. This is expected to rise to 31,453 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth of 10.7% [3][9] - Operating profit is forecasted to increase significantly from 4,777 million RMB in 2023 to 9,440 million RMB in 2025, showing a growth rate of 28.5% [3][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 4,920 million RMB in 2023 to 10,411 million RMB in 2025, representing a substantial increase of 56.7% [3][9] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 35.3% in 2023 to 45.6% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [3][9] Revenue Breakdown - Online music revenue for Q1 is reported at 58.0 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. The forecast for Q2 is 64.3 billion RMB, reflecting an 18.6% growth [7] - Social entertainment revenue for Q1 is 15.5 billion RMB, showing a decline of 11.9% year-on-year, with expectations of continued challenges in Q2 [7] Market Position and Valuation - The target price of 94.86 HKD is based on a P/E ratio of 27 times for 2026, which is aligned with comparable companies in the industry [2][8] - The report highlights a strong performance relative to the Hang Seng Index, with a 1-week absolute performance of 13.51% and a 1-month performance of 30.05% [5]
腾讯音乐-SW：25Q1点评：特权、有声驱动SVIP转化，粉丝经济强化非包月收入增长-20250521