尿素早评：回落空间有限-20250521

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report believes that the downside space for urea is limited, and recommends a strategy of buying on dips for the future market of urea. The main reasons are that urea exports may gradually be liberalized, with considerable export profits due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and domestic agricultural demand will support the market as it has not been fully released yet and the upstream inventory pressure has significantly decreased [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On May 20, UR01 closed at 1772 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan or 0.06% from the previous day), UR05 at 1775 yuan/ton (down 55 yuan or 3.01%), and UR09 at 1849 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan or 0.11%) [1]. - Spot Prices: In different regions on May 20, prices in Shanxi were 1760 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan or 0.56% from the previous day), in Henan 1900 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan or 0.52%), and remained unchanged in Hebei, Northeast China, and Jiangsu [1]. Basis and Spreads - Basis: The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 was 115 yuan/ton on May 20, up 55 yuan from the previous day [1]. - Spread: The 01 - 05 spread was -3 yuan/ton on May 20, up 56 yuan from the previous day [1]. Upstream and Downstream Costs and Prices - Upstream Costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan, Shanxi, and Shandong remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton, 850 yuan/ton, and 1180 yuan/ton respectively on May 20 [1]. - Downstream Prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2540 yuan/ton respectively on May 20. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu were 5430 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan or 0.37%) and 5550 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan or 1.77%) respectively [1]. Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1848 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1860 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1842 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1849 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1851 yuan/ton, and the position was 219,169 lots [1]. Trading Strategy The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, and it is expected that the 09 contract will operate in the range of 1800 - 1950 yuan/ton [1].