甲醇日评：反弹沽空初步印证-20250521

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The report suggests that methanol does not have the potential to go long, and it is better to wait for a short - selling opportunity after a rebound. The view has been initially verified [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - Methanol Futures Prices: On May 20, 2025, MA01 was 2326 yuan/ton (-0.60% compared to May 19), MA05 was 2272 yuan/ton (-1.22%), and MA09 was 2256 yuan/ton (-0.70%) [1]. - Methanol Spot Prices: Prices in different regions showed various changes. For example, in太仓 it was 2310 yuan/ton (-1.18%), in Shandong 2315 yuan/ton (-0.43%), and in Hubei 2395 yuan/ton (+1.27%) [1]. - Basis: The basis of 太仓 spot - MA was -16 yuan/ton, a change of -13.50 yuan compared to May 19 [1]. 2. Cost and Profit - Cost: Coal and natural gas prices mostly decreased. For example, 部水多斯Q5500 was 417.50 yuan/ton (-1.18%), and industrial natural gas prices in some areas remained unchanged [1]. - Profit: Coal - to - methanol profit was 423.40 yuan/ton (-16.51%), while natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained at -410 yuan/ton. Downstream profits of methanol generally increased, such as 西北MTO with a 161.30% increase and MTBE with a 45.11% increase [1]. 3. Information - Domestic: The main contract MA2509 of methanol futures oscillated downward, opening at 2278 yuan/ton, closing at 2256 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 540,027 lots and a position of 765,378 lots, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in position [1]. - Foreign: In the Middle East, 3 sets of methanol plants with a total capacity of 5.6 million tons reduced their operation load, and there were plans for other plants to stop for maintenance in mid - late May. In Southeast Asia, 2 sets of plants with a total capacity of 3.45 million tons were shut down [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - The previous suggestion of waiting for a short - selling opportunity after the 09 contract's rebound has been initially verified. The reasons include the unsustainable bullishness of macro - sentiment, the relatively fast return of domestic coal - to - methanol supply, and the relatively high valuation of methanol [1].