华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250521

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][2]. - The aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunguizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and restart: The shutdown time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the restart time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown [1]. - Anhui's short - process steel mills' shutdown: One of the 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest plan to shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2]. - New commercial housing transaction area: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - Market situation: The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [2]. - Later concerns: Macro policies and downstream demand [2]. Aluminum Ingots - Macro factors: The US dollar fell again on Tuesday due to the Fed's cautious attitude towards the economy, while China released signals of loose monetary policy, improving market expectations and stimulating economic growth and investment and consumption demand [1]. - Ore - end situation: Guinea's government announced the recovery of 51 mining licenses, causing disturbances in the ore end. As of May 16, the average cost of the alumina industry decreased to 2,812 yuan/ton, a decrease of 386 yuan/ton compared to early April, with the bauxite cost decreasing by 323 yuan/ton and the caustic soda cost decreasing by 54 yuan/ton. The alumina industry has turned profitable on average, and some alumina production capacity may resume production. However, due to the resurgence of disturbances in the bauxite supply end, there is a possibility of a rebound in bauxite prices, and alumina costs may change again [2]. - Import and inventory: In April 2025, China imported 20.684 million tons of bauxite, a 25.62% increase from the previous month and a 45.44% increase year - on - year. As of May 19, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China was 585,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last Thursday and a decrease of 16,000 tons from last Monday. The arrival of goods increased significantly over the weekend, and the subsequent destocking speed is likely to slow down. Whether it will turn to inventory accumulation depends on the matching between the replenishment demand increment of downstream export orders and the subsequent arrival increment. Normally, due to smooth domestic transportation in May and the expected weakening of off - season warehousing, the circulation in the mainstream consumption areas in China may gradually loosen at the end of May and early June [2]. - Later concerns: Changes in macro expectations, development of geopolitical crises, ore - end resumption of production, and consumption release [3].