Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short - term due to geopolitical conflicts and uncertain macro - economic factors. Brent is expected to trade in the range of $60 - 70 per barrel in the medium - term [2]. - The asphalt market is supported by cost and low inventory, with a relatively optimistic outlook during the peak season, and the BU2506 contract is expected to trade between 3400 - 3600 [7]. - The domestic LPG market is under pressure during the summer off - season, with a weak fundamental outlook [10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil has increasing seasonal power - generation demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a supply increase and weak demand [12][13]. - Natural gas prices in the US are expected to be volatile and weak, while in Europe, they are expected to be volatile and strong [14][15]. - PX and PTA are expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation in the third quarter, with prices expected to be well - supported [16][18]. - The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow [19]. - Short - fiber prices follow the trend of raw materials, with weak production and sales [20]. - The bottle - chip market has improved trading volume, but the processing fee may still be under pressure [24]. - PVC is in a short - term price - oscillation state and a long - term supply - surplus situation; caustic soda requires short - term observation and medium - term short - selling [27][28]. - Plastic and PP are recommended to be short - sold at high prices in the medium and short - term [29]. - The price of soda ash is expected to decline due to cost reduction and lack of significant driving factors [32]. - Glass prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and enter the off - season, with mid - term concerns about cost reduction and factory cold - repair [34]. - Methanol is recommended to be short - sold on rebounds [37]. - Urea is expected to be in a short - term oscillatory state, with a focus on policy changes [39]. - The corrugated and box - board paper market is expected to rebound due to tariff relaxation, but policy continuity and other factors need to be monitored [40][41]. - The double - offset paper market continues to be weak, with slow demand release [43]. - The log market is expected to be stable in the short - term but faces challenges in the long - term [44]. - For natural rubber, the RU 09 contract should hold short positions, and the NR 07 contract should be observed [47]. - For paper pulp, the SP 07 contract should be observed [49]. - For butadiene rubber, the BR 07 contract should be observed, and relevant spreads and options should be operated according to specific strategies [52]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oil - Market Review: WTI2506 settled at $62.56, down $0.13 (- 0.21%); Brent2507 settled at $65.38, down $0.16 (- 0.24%); SC2507 rose 3.2 to 464.6 yuan/barrel, and 3.2 to 467.8 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - Related News: Israel is reported to be preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities; the EU and the UK imposed new sanctions on Russia [1]. - Logic Analysis: Geopolitical conflicts lead to short - term price volatility, and the long - term supply surplus pressure is difficult to resolve [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term oscillation is strong, and medium - term is weak; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are weak; options are on hold [3][4]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2506 closed at 3523 points (- 0.51%) at night; BU2509 closed at 3450 points (- 0.17%) at night [4]. - Related News: The mainstream transaction prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, and South China have different trends, affected by supply, demand, and crude oil prices [4][5][6]. - Logic Analysis: Cost support and low inventory support the price, and the peak - season outlook is optimistic [7]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; the asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates at a high level; options are on hold [7]. LPG - Market Review: PG2506 closed at 4236 (- 0.19%) at night; PG2507 closed at 4160 (- 0.36%) at night [7]. - Related News: The market in South China, East China, and Shandong has different trends, affected by supply and demand [8][9]. - Logic Analysis: Cost increases, supply rises, and demand in the off - season is weak [10]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation and weakness [10]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU07 closed at 3031 (- 0.13%) at night; LU07 closed at 3525 (- 1.04%) at night [10]. - Related News: China's fuel oil imports increased in April; Russia's exports increased; Saudi Arabia may increase crude oil power - generation [11]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur fuel oil has increasing demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a supply increase and weak demand [12][13]. - Trading Strategy: On hold for single - side trading; FU 9 - 1 positive spread takes profit, and LU 7 - 8 reverse spread enters at high prices [13]. Natural Gas - Market Review: HH closed at 3.427 (+ 10%); TTF closed at 36.979 (+ 4.98%); JKM closed at 12.595 (+ 5.09%) [13]. - Logic Analysis: US inventory accumulation is higher than average, with supply and demand changes; European prices are affected by geopolitics and supply reduction [14]. - Trading Strategy: US natural gas is volatile and weak, while European natural gas is volatile and strong [15]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 closed at 6668 (- 1.24%) during the day and 6706 (+ 0.57%) at night [15]. - Related News: Northeast PX device starts maintenance; polyester production and sales are weak [15][16]. - Logic Analysis: The short - term start - up rate changes little, and the supply - demand situation is tight in the third quarter [16]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; long PX and short PTA; double - selling options [16]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 closed at 4732 (- 0.92%) during the day and 4750 (+ 0.38%) at night [16]. - Related News: Polyester production and sales are weak; some PTA devices have start - up and restart changes [17]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is expected to increase, and the third - quarter supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance [18]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; long PX and short PTA; double - selling options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 closed at 4413 (+ 0.34%) during the day and 4416 (+ 0.07%) at night [18]. - Related News: Polyester production and sales are weak; some MEG devices have start - up and shutdown changes [19]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow [19]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation and consolidation; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [19][20]. Short - Fiber - Market Review: PF2507 closed at 6506 (- 0.58%) during the day and 6506 (0%) at night [20]. - Related News: Polyester production and sales are weak [20]. - Logic Analysis: Prices follow raw materials, with weak production and sales [20]. - Trading Strategy: On hold for single - side trading; on hold for arbitrage; on hold for options [20][21]. Bottle - Chip - Market Review: PR2507 closed at 6022 (- 1.08%) during the day and 6028 (+ 0.10%) at night [21]. - Related News: Polyester bottle - chip factory export quotes are mostly lowered [24]. - Logic Analysis: Prices follow raw materials, with improved trading volume but processing fees under pressure [24]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation and consolidation; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [24][25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC spot prices are slightly adjusted, and caustic soda prices rise slightly [25]. - Related News: Shandong alumina manufacturers increase the purchase price of caustic soda [27]. - Logic Analysis: PVC is in a short - term oscillation and long - term surplus situation; caustic soda demand has uncertainties [27][28]. - Trading Strategy: PVC is short - sold on rebounds; caustic soda requires short - term observation and medium - term short - selling; on hold for arbitrage and options [27][28]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: LLDPE prices fall in some regions, and PP prices have slight fluctuations [28][29]. - Logic Analysis: New capacity is being realized, and demand is weak, so they are recommended to be short - sold at high prices [29]. - Trading Strategy: Short - sell at high prices in the medium and short - term; on hold for arbitrage and options [29]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The soda ash futures 09 contract closes at 1280 yuan/ton (- 0.3%), and the SA9 - 1 spread is 6 yuan/ton [29]. - Related News: Some soda ash enterprises start maintenance, and the market is lightly adjusted [31]. - Logic Analysis: Production is expected to decrease in the short - term, but the market trades the post - maintenance surplus situation, and demand is weak [32]. - Trading Strategy: Cost reduction leads to price decline; short soda ash and long glass; on hold for options [32]. Glass - Market Review: The glass futures 09 contract closes at 1025 yuan/ton (0.69%), and the 9 - 1 spread is - 56 yuan/ton [32]. - Related News: Glass prices in different regions have different trends, and the LPR is lowered [33][34]. - Logic Analysis: Prices are in a bottom - seeking trend, with supply decline and inventory pressure in the off - season [34]. - Trading Strategy: Prices are volatile and weak; long glass and short soda ash; on hold for options [34]. Methanol - Market Review: Methanol futures close at 2269 (- 0.53%) at night [34]. - Related News: Northwest methanol signing volume decreases [36]. - Logic Analysis: International supply is high, imports will increase, and domestic supply is loose, so it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [37]. - Trading Strategy: Short - sell on rebounds; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [37]. Urea - Market Review: Urea futures close at 1849 (+ 0.11%) [37]. - Related News: Urea production and inventory changes, and export policies are discussed [38][39]. - Logic Analysis: Production is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [38][39]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term long on pullbacks; 91 positive spread layout at low prices; sell put options [39][40]. Corrugated and Box - Board Paper - Related News: Paper prices rise, and waste yellow - board paper prices rise [40]. - Logic Analysis: Tariff relaxation promotes export recovery and price rebound, but factors such as policy continuity need to be monitored [40][41]. - Trading Strategy: No specific trading strategy provided. Double - Offset Paper - Related News: The market is stable, with weak demand [43]. - Logic Analysis: The market is weak, with slow demand release and stable cost support [43]. - Trading Strategy: No specific trading strategy provided. Log - Related News: Log spot prices are stable, and import and arrival data change [43][44]. - Logic Analysis: The short - term is expected to be stable, but the long - term faces challenges from real - estate demand and inventory [44]. - Trading Strategy: Observe for single - side trading; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; on hold for options [45]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Market Review: RU09, JRU10, NR07, TF08, and BR07 all decline [45][46]. - Related News: China's rubber tire exports increase in the first four months [46]. - Logic Analysis: Thailand's rubber exports and Japan's inventory have changes [47]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions for the RU09 contract; observe the NR07 contract; on hold for arbitrage and options [47]. Paper Pulp - Market Review: The SP07 contract closes at 5424 (+ 0.26%) [48]. - Related News: Two major state - owned enterprises in the pulp industry adjust management, which may enhance pricing power [48]. - Logic Analysis: CME wood prices and domestic paper - industry inventory have negative impacts on SP [49]. - Trading Strategy: Observe the SP07 contract; on hold for arbitrage [49]. Butadiene Rubber - Market Review: BR07 closes at 12095 (- 0.45%) [50]. - Related News: China's rubber tire exports increase in the first four months [51]. - Logic Analysis: Domestic butadiene inventory and tire exports have impacts on spreads [52]. - Trading Strategy: Observe the BR07 contract; reduce positions and observe the BR2507 - NR2507 spread; sell and hold the BR2507 put 11200 contract and set a stop - loss at last Friday's high [52].
银河期货原油期货早报-20250521
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-05-21 05:03