工业硅：短期过剩难改库存依旧高位，硅价弱势震荡

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The current oversupply situation of industrial silicon is difficult to change in the short term, and the industrial silicon market is still in a downward trend, showing weak fluctuations in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price - The spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated little yesterday, with the ex - factory price hovering at the bottom. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon is 9800 - 10100 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon futures, si2506, was 7910, down 2.34%, with 10324 hands reduced during the day, a total of 64,700 hands, and a turnover of 5.116 billion yuan [1] Supply - Northern large factories will continue to resume production in the near future. It is expected that the eastern production area will gradually resume production to 40 submerged arc furnaces. Coupled with the fact that some southern factories are ready to start furnaces, the market supply is expected to increase significantly next month, which is obviously negative for the current price [1] Demand - The price of polysilicon is stable, and the game between upstream and downstream continues to deepen. The price expectation divergence intensifies. At present, the transaction price of some polysilicon has fallen below the cost line. The price - concession willingness of silicon material enterprises is limited, but due to inventory pressure, downstream still has the bargaining initiative. The mainstream price of silicone DMC remains stable, and manufacturers focus on shipment. The short - term transaction center will still remain in the low - price range, and the subsequent actual transaction of DMC is expected to be maintained at 11300 - 12000 yuan/ton. Recently, with production cuts, the inventory of silicone has decreased slightly, and the short - term demand for industrial silicon remains stable. The price of aluminum alloy ingots is stable, but the enterprise profit continues to narrow, the shipment is average, and production is under pressure [1] Inventory - On May 20, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 66,246 hands, an increase of 152 hands, and the total inventory of industrial silicon remained at a high level [1]