光大期货软商品日报-20250521

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the cotton and sugar industries is "Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, on Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.73% to 66.12 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 0.11% to 13,395 yuan per ton. The main - contract position increased by 1,221 lots to 575,700 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,465 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan from the previous day. The China Cotton Price Index Grade 3128B was 14,550 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day. Internationally, the macro - level disturbances are significant. The Fed officials said they won't rush to cut interest rates, and the U.S. dollar index is weakening. The U.S. cotton price lacks a continuous upward drive. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price is oscillating in a new range, lacking the power to break the situation. If there are no macro - level surprises, the market will focus on new cotton. The new cotton planting area is expected to increase year - on - year, and this year is still expected to be a bumper harvest, so there is pressure on the supply side. Overall, the short - term upward and downward drivers for Zhengzhou cotton are weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - For sugar, the mainstream quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups is 6,110 - 6,200 yuan per ton, and that of Yunnan sugar - making groups is 5,910 - 5,950 yuan per ton, both down 10 yuan per ton. In April 2025, China imported 85,400 tons of sugar syrup and premixed powder. The raw sugar price continued to decline slightly due to the smooth harvest. Without macro - level support, the market is temporarily bearish, and attention should be paid to the Brazilian sugarcane crushing progress. The domestic spot market has average trading volume, with end - users buying as needed. The support comes from the relatively low inventory pressure, and the pressure comes from future imports. It is expected to oscillate, and investors should wait patiently for short - selling opportunities [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 7 - 9 contract spread is - 180, up 10; the main - contract basis is 1,155, down 21; the Xinjiang spot price is 14,465 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan; the national spot price is 14,550 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan [2] - For sugar, the 7 - 9 contract spread is 81, up 1; the main - contract basis is 311, up 4; the Nanning spot price is 6,140 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan; the Liuzhou spot price is 6,160 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] 2. Market Information - On May 20, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,501, down 54 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 311 [3] - On May 20, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 14,465 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,569 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,583 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,706 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3] - On May 20, the comprehensive yarn load was 54.8, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive yarn inventory was 23.2, unchanged; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth load was 53.1, unchanged; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth inventory was 30.6, down 0.1 [3] - On May 20, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 6,140 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day, and in Liuzhou was 6,160 yuan per ton, unchanged [3] - On May 20, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 32,836, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 91 [4] 3. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including the closing price, basis, contract spread, and warehouse receipts of cotton and sugar, which help to analyze the historical trends and current situations of these two soft commodities [6][13][16] 4. Research Team - The research team consists of Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for research on sugar, urea, soda - ash glass, and cotton - related varieties respectively, and have rich experience and many honors [18][19][20]