Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to tight raw materials, some secondary lead smelters have cut production, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate widely in the short term [1]. - For zinc, the macro - sentiment is stable and positive, but the fundamentals of SHFE zinc are weak. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and the center of the zinc price may shift down in the long - term. A strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - On May 21, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,650 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day; the closing price of the SHFE lead futures main contract was 16,845 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [1]. - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 24,386 lots, down 9.32%; the open interest was 22,798 lots, down 16.76% [1]. - LME lead inventory was 245,750 tons, unchanged; SHFE lead warrant inventory was 44,980 tons, down 10.12% [1]. Company and Industry News - Huayu Mining completed a mining volume of 283.3 million tons and a beneficiation volume of 242.66 million tons in 2024. The Shannan Branch completed a lead - zinc - antimony metal volume of 36,200 tons, including 19,600 tons of zinc, 14,400 tons of lead, 2235 tons of antimony, and 53.57 tons of silver [1]. Fundamental Analysis - The operation rate of primary lead is stable with a slight increase, while the operation rate of secondary lead has decreased significantly due to rising raw material costs and limited supplies [1]. - The demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement is weak, providing limited support for the lead price [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - On May 21, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,540 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day; the closing price of the SHFE zinc futures main contract was 22,435 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [1]. - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 94,706 lots, down 24.89%; the open interest was 76,630 lots, down 10.44% [1]. - LME zinc inventory was 156,725 tons, unchanged; SHFE zinc warrant inventory was 1,526 tons, down 10.29% [1]. Company and Industry News - Zijin Mining's Kyzyl - Tashtyg lead - zinc mine in Russia will maintain normal operation, canceling the plan to suspend operations in June. In 2024, the mine produced about 71,300 DMT of zinc concentrate and about 4750 tons of lead concentrate [1]. - In April 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 494,700 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 37.6% and a year - on - year increase of 72.07%. The cumulative import volume from January to April was 1.7125 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.26% [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The limitation of raw material shortages on smelter production has weakened, and production is expected to increase [1]. - After the May Day holiday, the operation rate of downstream enterprises has increased, but the terminal market has not improved, and downstream enterprises are bearish on the zinc price and have weak procurement enthusiasm [1]. - Different downstream sectors have different performances: galvanizing has mixed performance, die - casting zinc alloy has good electronic orders but weak traditional hardware orders, and zinc oxide has uncertain export orders due to anti - dumping investigations [1].
铅锌日评:原料不足引发炼厂减产,铅价下方支撑较强,沪锌区间整理-20250521
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-05-21 05:20