集运日报：利好出尽盘面保持高位震荡，符合日报预期，已建议冲高止盈，等待回调机会-20250521

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping market is affected by multiple factors including tariff policies, geopolitical situations, and spot freight rates. The market is in a state of multi - empty game with uncertain outcomes for the implementation of liner companies' price increases [3]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates in the future [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On May 12, the NCFI (composite index) was 1014.55 points, up 6.53% from the previous period; the SCFIS (European route) was 1265.30 points, down 2.9%; the NCFI (European route) was 750.91 points, down 0.78%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1446.36 points, down 0.6%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1813.08 points, up 23.18% [2]. - On May 16, the SCFI was 1479.39 points, down 134.22 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1104.88 points, down 0.1%; the SCFI European route price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 0.60%; the CCFI (European route) was 1430.35 points, down 1.0%; the SCFI US West route was 3091 USD/FEU, up 31.70%; the CCFI (US West route) was 876.92 points, up 2.2% [2]. Economic Data - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - In April, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI initial value was 48.7 (expected 47.5), the service PMI initial value was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the composite PMI initial value was 50.1 (expected 50.3) [2]. - In April, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI initial value was 50.7 (expected 49.1), the service PMI initial value was 51.4 (expected 52.8), and the composite PMI initial value was 51.2 (expected 52.2) [3]. Market Influencing Factors - Tariffs have been added as a trade negotiation tool, increasing uncertainty in the shipping market. The easing of the Sino - US trade war may lead to a rush of shipments in 90 days, which is beneficial for the digestion of US - bound shipping capacity, but price wars among alliances cannot be avoided [3]. - The Houthi rebels announced a maritime blockade of Haifa, Israel on May 19, which may affect shipping routes and freight rates [5]. - The new US government's tariff policy has brought more negative impacts than expected, causing uncertainty for shipping companies [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate. It is recommended to focus on medium - to - long - term contracts if participating [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern, but the window period is short and volatile. Currently, a positive arbitrage structure is recommended [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when prices reach a high level, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then try to go long on the freight rate rebound [4]. Contract Information - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 16% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 26% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4].