碳酸锂日评：国内碳酸锂5月供给预期偏松，国内碳酸锂社会库存量环比增加-20250521

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in May is expected to be loose, and the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate has increased month - on - month. The price of lithium carbonate is likely to fall rather than rise due to cost factors, but investors should be wary of production cuts or construction halts in the domestic and foreign lithium industries. It is recommended that investors mainly place short positions when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the support level around 53,000 - 60,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Futures Market - Price: On May 20, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 60,960 yuan/ton, 60,860 yuan/ton, 62,100 yuan/ton, and 62,100 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend compared with the previous trading day [1] - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active contract was 242,276 lots, an increase of 18,212 lots compared with the previous day; the open interest was 339,673 lots, an increase of 3,866 lots [1] - Inventory: The inventory was 36,545 tons, a decrease of 139 tons compared with the previous day [1] - Spreads: The spreads between different contracts and the basis also showed certain changes. For example, the spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts decreased by 3,180 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Lithium Spot Market - Lithium Ore: The average prices of various lithium ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone decreased to varying degrees on May 20, 2025 [1] - Lithium Compounds: The average prices of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other lithium compounds also showed a downward trend. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) decreased by 450 yuan/ton [1] - Other Products: The prices of products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate also decreased to varying degrees [1] 3.3 Industry News - New Project Commissioning: Shandong Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of CATL, officially put its energy storage and power battery production base in Yanzhou, Jining into operation. The first - phase project has a total scale of 60GWh. The second and third phases are expected to be put into operation in the next two years, which is expected to form a global leading 100 - billion - level new energy battery industrial cluster [1] - Production Plan: Salt Lake Co., Ltd. said that with the support of China Minmetals and China Salt Lake, the newly built 40,000 - ton lithium salt project will produce 3,000 tons of lithium carbonate this year [1] - Project Commencement: On May 19, the annual production project of 10GWh of electronic energy - storage cells and 10GWh of ion batteries 2PAC of Changyi Zhongdian (Yunnan) Energy Storage Technology Co., Ltd. started construction in Simao Industrial Park, Yunnan [1] 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply Side: After the Greenbushes project of Tianqi Lithium is put into operation in October 2025, the total production capacity will reach 24,000 tons/year, which may lead to a decline in the price of domestic (imported) lithium ore. The production volume of lithium carbonate in China in May is expected to increase, and the supply is expected to be loose. Some production lines will undergo inspections, and the production costs and profits of different production methods vary [2] - Demand Side: The monthly average production cost of lithium iron phosphate by different production processes in China is 32,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton. The production volume of lithium iron phosphate in May is expected to increase. The production costs of some cobalt - related products are rising, and the production volume of some products may change [2]