煤炭行业债券专题研究报告：煤炭行业信用风险回溯及展望

Group 1: Industry Fundamental Situation Supply Side - In 2024, domestic advanced coal production capacity was released in an orderly manner, with production increasing in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia and decreasing in Shanxi. The annual coal supply was sufficient, with a national raw coal output of 4.759 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. In 2025, major production areas like Shanxi and Xinjiang are expected to increase production, but the output growth rate will be low [1][12]. - In 2024, China's coal imports remained at a high level, with an import volume of 543 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%. In 2025, imported coal is expected to support supply, but the growth rate will slow down [1][17]. - In 2024, coal inventories in major production areas increased, and coal inventories at nine ports in the Bohai Rim and power plants were at high levels. In 2025, coal inventories are expected to remain high [1][29]. Demand Side - In 2024, power consumption continued to grow, and thermal power still played an important role in ensuring supply. However, new energy power generation replaced thermal power, and coal demand in the building materials industry was restricted. In 2025, thermal coal demand for power generation is expected to support overall coal demand, and the decline in coal demand for cement production may narrow [2][73]. - In 2024, the demand for coking coal was restricted by the weak demand in the steel industry, with a national coking coal consumption of 588 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.58%. In 2025, the steel industry's weak demand pattern is expected to continue [2][59]. - In 2024, the demand for coal in the chemical industry was supported by the increase in production of urea and methanol, but the overall demand was still low. In 2025, the scale of coal demand in the chemical industry is expected to remain small [69][72]. Price Side - In 2024, the prices of thermal coal and coking coal fluctuated downward, and the coal price center shifted downward. In 2025, coal prices are expected to remain under pressure, but long - term agreements will still support coal prices [2][74]. Group 2: 2024 Coal Credit Bond Market Review - In 2024, the issuance scale of coal industry bonds increased significantly year - on - year, with an issuance amount of 383.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 80.20%. The issuing entities were mainly local and central state - owned enterprises, and the issuance terms were mainly within 3 years [80]. - As of December 31, 2024, the outstanding bonds in the coal industry were 721.852 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.98%. The industry will be in a debt repayment peak in the next three years [3]. - In 2024, the credit spread of the coal industry compressed and was at a relatively low level. The coal industry bond market was generally stable, and the market recognition improved [86]. Group 3: Financial Performance of Coal Enterprises Profitability - In 2024, the operating income and net profit of coal enterprises decreased due to the decline in coal prices. Among the 40 sample enterprises, most had a decline in operating income, net profit, and gross profit margin. In 2025, coal enterprise profitability is expected to be restricted by weak terminal demand and prices, but there will still be support [92][95]. Cash Flow - In 2024, the operating net cash flow of coal enterprises decreased, the net outflow of investment cash flow remained large, and the financing cash flow remained in a net outflow state but with a reduced scale. In 2025, the operating net cash flow is expected to be relatively abundant, the net outflow of investment cash flow will remain rigid but with a reduced scale, and the net outflow of financing cash flow will further narrow [98][103]. Debt Burden and Solvency - In 2024, coal enterprises had a high leverage level and an increasing debt scale, but the overall solvency was still strong. In 2025, the debt scale is expected to rise, the debt structure will continue to optimize, and the overall credit risk is expected to be relatively controllable [105][108].