Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Rio Tinto Ltd. with a 12-month price target of A$140.80, indicating an upside potential of 18.1% from the current price of A$119.22 [17]. Core Insights - Rio Tinto has entered a joint venture with Codelco to develop the Maricunga lithium project in Chile, which aligns with its growth and value creation strategy [1][4]. - The Maricunga project is expected to enhance Rio Tinto's lithium production significantly, potentially increasing its equity share to over 250ktpa by 2035 [10]. - The company is leveraging its Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) technology, which offers higher lithium recoveries and lower capital expenditures compared to conventional methods [8][9]. Summary by Sections Joint Venture and Project Development - Rio Tinto will acquire a 49.99% interest in the Maricunga project for a total of US$900 million, with initial funding for studies and construction costs [2]. - The project aims for first production by the end of the decade, with potential additional payments contingent on production milestones [2]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The report forecasts that lithium will contribute approximately 6% of Rio Tinto's EBITDA by 2030, driven by the Rincon lithium project and the Maricunga joint venture [10]. - The company is expected to achieve a free cash flow yield of around 6% in 2025 and 7% in 2026, supported by bullish projections for copper and aluminum prices [16]. Production and Growth Outlook - Rio Tinto's copper equivalent production is projected to grow by approximately 20% and EBITDA by over 30% by 2030, primarily due to the ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine and improved productivity in the Pilbara region [16]. - The Pilbara region is anticipated to contribute significantly to the company's free cash flow improvements from 2025 to 2027 [16]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The report highlights Rio Tinto's strong market position, trading at approximately 0.7x NAV, which is competitive compared to peers [16]. - The company is recognized for its high-margin, low-emission aluminum production, which is powered by hydroelectric energy [16].
力拓有限公司(RIO.AX)与智利国家铜业公司(Codelco)成立智利锂合资企业符合增长和价值创造战略;买入
Goldman Sachs·2025-05-21 04:25