United Spirits：联合烈酒（UNSP.BO）2025财年第四季度初步评估：超出预期-20250521

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to United Spirits with a 12-month price target of Rs 1,710, indicating an upside potential of 9.8% from the current price of Rs 1,557.45 [11]. Core Insights - United Spirits is well-positioned to benefit from the premiumization trend in the Indian spirits market, particularly in the whisky segment, where Scotch is experiencing the fastest growth at a CAGR of 16% from FY18 to FY23 [8]. - The company's share of revenue from luxury and premium brands within the Prestige and above segment has increased from 26% in FY18 to 37% in FY23, reflecting its strategic focus on premium variants [8]. - Despite potential challenges from a slowdown in urban consumption, the reopening of sales in Andhra Pradesh is expected to mitigate overall growth moderation [8]. - Standalone EBITDA margins are projected to expand from approximately 16% in FY24 to around 18% in FY27, driven by productivity enhancements and operating leverage [8]. - Consolidated EPS is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14% over FY24-27, with a valuation based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 58x Q5 to Q8 EPS, aligning with the 3-year average P/E for the stock [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In 4QFY25, United Spirits reported consolidated net sales growth of 8.3% YoY, with standalone net sales growth at 10.5% YoY [1][5]. - Consolidated EBITDA grew approximately 38% YoY, driven by gross margin expansion, while consolidated PAT increased around 40% YoY, significantly exceeding estimates [1][5]. - Standalone EBITDA margins expanded by approximately 360 basis points YoY, supported by an improved mix within the Prestige segment and cost efficiency initiatives [3][6]. - Total volume growth for the company was approximately 6.9% YoY, with the Prestige and above segment growing at about 9.2% YoY, while the Popular segment saw a decline of 2.2% YoY [2][6].