广发宏观：税收收入同比增速年内首月转正

Revenue Insights - In April, the general public budget revenue growth rate increased to 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue significantly improving by 4.1 percentage points to 1.9%, marking the first positive growth this year[3] - Cumulative tax revenue for the first four months remains at -2.1% year-on-year, with corporate income tax down by 3.1%, primarily due to low PPI[3] - Non-tax revenue contribution to fiscal income decreased in April, raising the fiscal income growth rate by only 0.2 percentage points, with a year-on-year growth of 1.7%[3] Tax Breakdown - Corporate income tax contributed 1.21 percentage points to fiscal income growth, while personal income tax surged by 67.5% to 9.0%, largely due to base effect[4] - Domestic VAT and corporate income tax saw a year-on-year decline compared to March, but this is attributed to the high revenue in March due to the Spring Festival timing[4] Expenditure Trends - Narrow fiscal expenditure growth in April rose to 5.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 4.6% for the first four months, exceeding the annual target growth of 4.4%[4] - Major expenditure drivers include social security, education, and proactive investments in transportation, reflecting a strong fiscal support structure[4] Broader Fiscal Context - The divergence in fiscal revenue and expenditure is narrowing, with government fund revenue growth in April turning positive at 8.1% year-on-year, compared to -11.7% previously[7] - Cumulative land transfer revenue for the first four months increased by 16.8%, indicating a recovery in land finance[7] Future Outlook - The fiscal revenue growth remains low, necessitating further measures to stabilize growth and expand domestic demand[8] - The fiscal deficit for the first four months reached 2.65 trillion yuan, the highest in recent years, indicating a trend of front-loaded fiscal measures[8]