4月经济数据点评：边际放缓，韧性仍强

Production - In April, the industrial added value year-on-year growth rate was 6.1%, lower than the previous value but higher than the consensus expectation of 5.2%[11] - The export delivery value year-on-year growth rate was 0.9%, a significant decrease of 6.8 percentage points from the previous month[11] - Cumulative industrial added value growth for April was 6.4%, exceeding the full-year growth rate for 2024 by 0.6 percentage points[3] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth rate in April was 4.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter but still 0.8 percentage points higher than the full-year growth for 2024[19] - Broad infrastructure cumulative growth rate was 10.9%, slightly lower than the previous month but still strong, with a year-on-year growth of 26.0% in electric heating and water projects[4] - Real estate investment growth rate in April was -11.3%, with a decline of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a weakening trend in the sector[21] Consumption - In April, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was 5.1%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a decrease in consumer willingness due to external uncertainties[35] - Essential consumption grew at a rate of 14.8%, while optional consumption saw a slight decline, with automotive consumption growth at only 0.7%[35] - Jewelry consumption surged by 19.3%, driven by gold price fluctuations, while home improvement materials benefited from the renovation season with a growth rate of 9.7%[35] Outlook - External demand may recover as the U.S. reduces tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, potentially boosting production confidence[7] - Domestic demand is expected to remain stable, supported by recent monetary policy easing measures such as interest rate cuts and increased issuance of special bonds[7]