高盛：铜-关税疲劳带来 COMEX - LME 价差买入机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a view that a 25% copper import tariff is the most likely outcome of the S232 investigation, with a market-implied probability of 47% by the end of 2025, presenting a compelling opportunity for the 'Copper Tariff Trade' of long Dec-25 COMEX-LME copper arbitrage [4][6][7]. Core Insights - The Dec-25 COMEX-LME US-UK copper spread decreased from $1,708/t to $1,113/t between April 22 and May 20, indicating a reduced market-implied probability of a 25% US copper import tariff [4][6]. - The decline in the spread is attributed to the US making concessions on previously announced tariffs, which increases the perceived risk of concessions on potential copper tariffs [7][8]. - Rising US inventories have not materially impacted the COMEX-LME spread, as the decline is primarily due to greater uncertainty regarding future tariffs [11]. Summary by Sections Copper Tariff Investigation - There have been no official announcements from the Trump Administration regarding the copper S232 investigation since late February, leading to a lower probability of a US copper import tariff [7]. - If the US decides against imposing a copper import tariff, it is expected that the COMEX price would drop below the LME price due to high US inventories [8]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that US copper scrap exports have decreased year-to-date but have not ceased, and a blanket export ban is not anticipated [13][16]. - The UK securing concessions on steel and aluminum S232 tariffs is seen as a potential indicator that all tariffs, including copper, may be subject to negotiation [12]. Inventory and Pricing - The report highlights that the current high level of US copper inventories, the highest since 2012, is influencing market dynamics, particularly in relation to the COMEX-LME spread [8][11]. - The report emphasizes that tighter LME and wider COMEX timespreads account for the changes in the COMEX-LME spread, indicating that external factors are more impactful than US inventory levels [11].