高盛：对冲基金趋势监测-卖空兴趣回升

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the hedge fund industry Core Insights - Hedge funds have maintained a positive return of +1% year-to-date (YTD) despite a challenging market environment, with a notable performance of +6% from the Hedge Fund Very Important Positions (GSTHHVIP) basket [2][19] - Short interest has surged, lifting hedge fund gross leverage to a new record, with $218 billion in ETFs and $948 billion in single stocks as of the start of Q2 2025 [3][35] - The median S&P 500 stock's short interest has increased to 2.3% of market cap, up from 1.8% in December 2024, indicating a rise above the long-term historical average [46][49] Performance, Leverage, and Short Interest - US equity long/short hedge funds have achieved a +1% return YTD, while the GSTHHVIP basket has outperformed with a +6% return [20][24] - Hedge funds have increased gross leverage to a record high, ranking in the 100th percentile compared to the last five years, while net leverage remains low [28][31] - The increase in gross leverage is attributed to a significant rise in short interest across both ETFs and individual stocks [35][28] Thematic Tilts - Hedge funds have the highest exposure to Cyclicals relative to Defensives since 2014, which has contributed positively to fund returns in Q2 [19][20] - Despite market volatility, hedge funds maintained steady exposure to AI stocks, with LRCX and MU joining the Hedge Fund VIP list [19][20] Sector Positions - Hedge funds reduced net tilts in Health Care while increasing positions in Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials [18][19] - The rotation away from Health Care was particularly focused on Biopharma, with BMY and CRL identified as Falling Stars [18] Hedge Fund VIP List - The most popular long positions among hedge funds include AMZN, META, MSFT, NVDA, and GOOGL, with 13 new constituents added to the VIP list [19][20] - The VIP basket has historically outperformed the S&P 500 in 59% of quarters since 2001, with an average quarterly excess return of 51 basis points [19][20]