Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pony AI Inc. with a 12-month target price of US$26.0, reflecting an upside potential of 45.4% from the current price of US$17.88 [18][19]. Core Insights - Pony AI reported 1Q25 revenues of US$14 million, representing a 12% year-over-year increase but a 61% decrease quarter-over-quarter. The operating loss narrowed to US$56 million from US$173 million in 4Q24, indicating improved operational efficiency [1][12]. - The company is ramping up its robotaxi operations, with fare-charging revenues increasing by 800% year-over-year. The Gen7 robotaxi model is entering mass production, with plans to deploy a total of 1,000 robotaxis by year-end [1][12]. - Partnerships with major companies like Tencent and Uber are expected to enhance user base and service integration, further supporting revenue growth [12][18]. Financial Performance - In 1Q25, gross profit was US$2 million, with a gross margin of 16.6%, down from previous quarters due to increased sales of domain controllers [12]. - The company’s net income loss narrowed to US$43 million from US$181 million in 4Q24, indicating a trend towards improved financial health [12]. - The report projects revenue growth for 2025-2026, with a slight increase in gross margin estimates to 16.2% and 16.9% respectively, supported by larger operational scale [9][11]. Revenue Breakdown - Robotaxi revenues in 1Q25 were US$1.7 million, up 200% year-over-year, while robotruck revenues were US$7.8 million, reflecting a 4% year-over-year increase [7]. - Licensing and applications revenues remained stable at US$4.5 million, with growth driven by new clients in the autonomous domain [7]. Valuation and Forecast - The valuation is based on a discounted EV/EBITDA method, applying a target multiple of 13.5x for 2031E EBITDA, reflecting a higher forward year EBITDA growth of 21% in 2032E [11][15]. - The report revises revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 upwards by 0% to 1%, indicating faster fleet deployment than previously expected [9][10]. Market Position - Pony AI is positioned as a leader in Level 4 autonomous mobility, operating fully driverless robotaxis in major Chinese cities and expanding its global footprint with road test qualifications in Luxembourg and South Korea [18][19].
高盛：小马智行-自动驾驶出租车队持续扩张；运营亏损收窄；买入