贵金属日评：以色列或打击伊朗核设施，日本央行缩表致国债难卖-20250521

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is advanced to September, coupled with continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world and persistent geopolitical risks, which may make precious metal prices prone to rise and hard to fall. It is recommended that investors lightly test long positions on the main contracts on dips in the short - term. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Precious Metal Market Data - Gold: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 761.72 yuan on May 21, 2025, down 7.34 from the previous trading day; the trading volume was 268,945.00, down 85,354.00 from the previous day. International gold (COMEX) futures' closing price was 3232.20 dollars on May 21, 2025, with a trading volume of 221,476.00. [1] - Silver: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 8074.00 yuan on May 21, 2025, with a trading volume of - 167,171.00 compared to the previous trading day. International silver (COMEX) futures' closing price was 33.26 dollars on May 21, 2025, with a trading volume of 33,335.00. [1] - Price Ratios: The ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 93.43 on May 21, 2025; the ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 100.36. [1] Important Information - Geopolitical: On June 20 (local time), multiple US officials revealed that intelligence indicated Israel might be preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. [1] - Trade Negotiations: Goldman Sachs predicts that in the EU - US negotiations, the baseline scenario is a failure to reach an agreement, with "escalated tariff hikes". Japan is considering accepting a US tariff reduction rather than a full exemption. India and the US are discussing a "three - stage" trade agreement, expected to reach a temporary agreement before early July. [1] - Macroeconomic and Central Bank Policies: - US: The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be depleted as early as August - October, which may slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The Trump administration plans to cut the 2026 fiscal budget by $163 billion. The April manufacturing and service PMI and employment data were better than expected, and the April consumer - end inflation rate was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, which may lead the Fed to cut interest rates in September or December. [1] - Europe: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2.25%. The euro - zone and German and French manufacturing PMIs in April were 48.7/48/48.2, higher than expected but lower than the previous value. The euro - zone consumer price index annual rate in April was 2.2%, higher than expected but close to the previous value. European Central Bank economists predict that the neutral interest rate is 1.76 - 2.25%, and the ECB may cut interest rates 2 - 3 more times by the end of 2025. [1] - UK: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May to 4.25%, and continued to reduce its holdings of £100 billion in government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK's August consumer price index CPI (core CPI) annual rate was 2.6% (3.4%), both lower than expected and the previous value. The April SECI manufacturing and service PMIs were 44/48.9, both lower than expected and the previous value. The Bank of England may cut interest rates 2 - 3 more times by the end of 2025. [1] - Japan: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.5%, and has been reducing its quarterly government bond purchases by 400 billion yen since August 2024. Japan's (Tokyo) March and April consumer price index annual rates were 3.6% (3.5%), lower than expected and the previous value (higher than expected and the previous value). With the Japanese largest union Renzo achieving an average wage increase of 5.46%, some Bank of Japan officials hope to raise interest rates to 1% in the second or third quarter, leading the market to expect a possible interest rate hike around July. [1] Trading Strategy Investors are advised to lightly test long positions on the main contracts on dips in the short - term. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3000 - 3200 dollars and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700 dollars; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 730 - 750 yuan and the resistance level is around 850 - 900 yuan. For London silver, the support level is around 28 - 30 dollars and the resistance level is around 35 - 36 dollars; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 7800 - 8000 yuan and the resistance level is around 8600 - 8900 yuan. [1]