我国重卡以旧换新政策回顾

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of the trade - in subsidy policy for heavy - duty trucks can significantly boost the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in the following year [3][16]. - In 2025, the new policy expands the replacement scope of natural gas heavy - duty trucks and "National IV" standard heavy - duty trucks, which is expected to bring an additional 100,000 units of heavy - duty truck sales, increasing the sales volume from 900,000 units in 2024 to 1,000,000 units, with an increase of about 10%, and the upper limit of the corresponding rubber demand pull may reach about 2% [3][51][62]. - Currently, the large price difference between diesel and natural gas, combined with the inclusion of natural gas heavy - duty trucks in the 2025 trade - in subsidy policy, is expected to drive the continuous increase in the sales volume of natural gas heavy - duty trucks [3][47][61]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Preface - The automobile industry is crucial to the economy, including promoting GDP growth, activating the consumer market, and attracting investment. When automobile sales are sluggish, the state will introduce stimulus policies such as trade - in subsidies [9]. - Since 2000, China's automobile sales have gone through stages of high - speed development, adjustment, and stable development. When sales are sluggish, the state has introduced purchase tax exemption policies and, more recently, trade - in subsidy policies [10][12][13]. 2. Review of China's Heavy - Duty Truck Trade - in Subsidy Policy - In 2009, two policies were issued. The subsidy amount was initially 0.3 - 0.6 million yuan per vehicle and later increased to 0.5 - 1.8 million yuan per vehicle. This policy significantly increased the heavy - duty truck sales growth rate in 2010 from 2.27% in 2009 to 37.7% [14][60]. - In 2015, a policy targeted at semi - trailers and heavy - duty trucks was introduced, with a subsidy of 1.8 million yuan per vehicle. This policy led to significant growth in heavy - duty truck sales from 2016 - 2017, with year - on - year growth rates of 29.51% and 56.12% respectively [15][61]. - From 2019 to the present, many cities have introduced trade - in subsidy policies for operating trucks, and despite the economic downturn, the total annual sales of heavy - duty trucks in China have remained on an upward trend [25][26]. 3. Frequent Introduction of Heavy - Duty Truck Trade - in Subsidy Policies in the Past Two Years - In 2024, multiple trade - in subsidy policies were introduced, but the heavy - duty truck sales did not recover, mainly due to weak real estate demand and low "National III" vehicle ownership, low upgrade willingness, and vehicle condition and procedure issues [36][44]. - In 2025, the new policy has three changes: expanding the subsidy scope to include natural gas heavy - duty trucks, allowing new - purchase subsidies for trucks with less than 1 - year pre - retirement, and adding "National IV" trucks to the retirement scope [45][46]. - The sales volume of natural gas heavy - duty trucks has been increasing, and the current large price difference between diesel and natural gas, combined with the 2025 policy, is expected to drive further growth [47]. 4. Conclusion - The trade - in subsidy policies in 2009 and 2015 effectively boosted the sales of heavy - duty trucks in the following years [60][61]. - The current subsidy policy is similar to that in 2015. It is expected to drive the recovery of heavy - duty truck sales in 2025 and 2026, but the growth rate will be much lower due to real estate demand constraints [62]. - The new policy in 2025 is expected to bring an additional 100,000 units of heavy - duty truck sales, with an increase of about 10%, and the upper limit of the corresponding rubber demand pull may reach about 2% [3][51][62].