4月外汇市场分析报告：极限关税施压无碍银行结售汇顺差扩大

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In April, despite extreme tariff pressure, the RMB exchange rate quickly stabilized and rebounded after a brief adjustment, and the multilateral exchange rate continued to weaken. There's no need to worry too much about the passive appreciation of the RMB exchange rate when the US dollar index is weak [2]. - In April, under the impact of Trump's tariffs, cross - border funds had a net inflow for the third consecutive month. Goods trade showed strong resilience, while securities investment was under pressure. However, foreign investors' willingness to allocate RMB assets continued to improve, thanks to the Chinese government's effective response to external shocks and timely stabilization of market expectations [2]. - In April, the enhanced willingness of market players to settle foreign exchange (or weakened motivation to hold foreign exchange) drove the continuous improvement of the domestic foreign exchange supply - demand relationship. The change in the willingness of the enterprise sector to hold foreign exchange was more obvious than that of the household sector [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs RMB Exchange Rate Performance - In April, after two rounds of 10 - percentage - point tariff increases on Chinese goods by Trump in February and March, the RMB exchange rate did not fall but rose. Facing the extreme pressure of the US "reciprocal tariff" in April, the RMB exchange rate re - priced the unexpected major risk event. The offshore RMB exchange rate once fell to around 7.43 on April 8 and 9, and the on - shore RMB exchange rate fell below 7.35 on April 9. Then, the RMB exchange rate rebounded, and the divergence of the "three prices" significantly converged. At the end of April, the on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates depreciated by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively compared with the end of last month but appreciated by 0.5% and 0.9% respectively compared with the end of last year [3]. - The RMB exchange rate quickly stabilized and rebounded in April because the foreign exchange market had priced in Trump's impact in advance at the end of last year. On the one hand, Trump's policies intensified the US dollar credit crisis, causing the US to turn from a safe - haven to a risk source, with the US dollar index falling by 4.4% in the month, the largest decline since December 2022. On the other hand, the Chinese government's effective response, including tariff counter - measures and a series of financial support policies, stabilized market confidence [4]. - In April, the decline of the US dollar index led to the appreciation of major non - US currencies, so the RMB exchange rate index continued to weaken. The CFETS RMB exchange rate index and the RMB exchange rate index referencing the BIS currency basket fell for the fourth consecutive month, with the month - on - month decline expanding from 0.9% and 0.8% last month to 2.8% and 3.1% respectively. The RMB exchange rate index referencing the SDR currency basket weakened for the third consecutive month, with the month - on - month decline expanding from 1.3% to 2.9% [5]. Cross - border Capital Flows - Since February, under the impact of Trump's tariffs, the bank's customer - related foreign exchange receipts and payments have had a continuous surplus, with the surplus amounts being $29 billion,$49.2 billion, and $17.3 billion respectively. In April, securities investment, income and current transfers, service trade, and direct investment were all items with cross - border capital outflows, with deficits of$12.5 billion, $16.6 billion,$10.5 billion, and $7.3 billion respectively. Goods trade continued to play a fundamental role in stabilizing cross - border capital flows, with a surplus of$63 billion, a record high for the same period [11]. - In April, the net inflow of cross - border funds decreased month - on - month, mainly due to securities investment, which changed from a net inflow in the previous two months to a net outflow of $12.5 billion, contributing 62$28.4 billion from October 2024 to January 2025, indicating limited pressure on the net outflow of cross - border funds under securities investment [12]. - In April, foreign investors' willingness to allocate RMB assets continued to improve under the extreme tariff pressure. The central Huijin Company clearly stated that it would play the role of a "stabilization fund" and increase its holdings of ETFs and high - quality stocks. The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued support policies to stabilize the capital market, and state - owned asset operation platforms also increased their holdings of central enterprise and technology - innovation stocks [13]. Foreign Exchange Supply - Demand Relationship - In April, the bank's spot and forward (including options) foreign exchange settlement and sales (hereinafter referred to as bank foreign exchange settlement and sales) had a surplus for the second consecutive month, and the surplus increased from $6.3 billion last month to$16.6 billion. The net purchase of forward and options foreign exchange derivatives increased from $8.3 billion last month to$20.9 billion, and the bank's customer - related foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus increased from $100 million last month to$590 million, contributing 122% and 56% respectively to the increase in the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus. The bank's own foreign exchange settlement and sales deficit increased from $2.1 billion last month to$10.1 billion, with a contribution rate of - 79% [15]. - In April, the surplus of the bank's customer - related foreign currency receipts and payments decreased from $34.5 billion last month to$14.2 billion, but the bank's customer - related foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus increased instead of decreasing. The gap between them decreased from $34.4 billion last month to$8.3 billion, the lowest since February 2024. This was mainly because the willingness of market players to settle foreign exchange increased and the motivation to purchase foreign exchange decreased. The settlement rate of foreign exchange receipts (excluding forward performance) increased by 6.9 percentage points month - on - month to 57.4%, the highest since October 2024, and the purchase rate of foreign exchange for payments decreased by 1.0 percentage point [16]. - In April, the gaps between the foreign exchange receipts and payments and foreign exchange settlement and sales of goods trade and service trade narrowed to $31.4 billion and$3.3 billion respectively, both the lowest since October 2024. The narrowing of the goods trade gap was due to the weakened motivation of the enterprise sector to hold foreign exchange, and the settlement rate of goods trade income continued to rise, increasing by 5.1 percentage points month - on - month to 51.0%, the highest in nearly half a year. The narrowing of the service trade gap was because the motivation of the household sector to hold and rush to buy foreign exchange both weakened [17].