4月宏观环境观察：关税落地首月，经济有何影响

Group 1: Macro Environment - In April, the impact of the "reciprocal tariffs" in the US was limited due to a 90-day exemption period and ongoing negotiations with most countries[1] - The US economy showed resilience, with a potential to avoid recession if tariff increases can be reduced to 10%[1] - China's exports in April grew by 8.1% year-on-year, supported by strong re-export trade, despite a decline in direct exports to the US[15] Group 2: Trade and Investment - Direct trade suffered significantly, with South Korea's exports to the US dropping by 30.4% year-on-year in April[7] - Re-export trade surged, with Vietnam's exports increasing by 21% year-on-year in April, indicating a shift in trade dynamics[7] - Fixed asset investment in China grew by 4% year-on-year in the first four months, but manufacturing investment declined by 0.9 percentage points compared to March[19] Group 3: Policy and Market Response - The US and UK reached a trade agreement, maintaining a 10% basic tariff rate, while negotiations with China resulted in temporary agreements[26] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates in the second half of the year due to rising inflation and economic slowdown risks[27] - A comprehensive financial policy package was introduced in China to stabilize market expectations, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio[29] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The US consumer confidence index fell to 50.8 in May, the lowest since July 2022, indicating strong inflation expectations[12] - China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year in April, while PPI fell by 2.7%, reflecting significant deflationary pressures[23] - New export orders in China dropped to 44.7, the lowest since late 2022, highlighting ongoing uncertainties in trade policies[17]