地缘风险引发成本端油价上行，PX、PTA短线获得支撑

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have led to an increase in oil prices at the cost - end, providing short - term support for PX and PTA. PX and PTA are in the maintenance season, with a significant reduction in supply. The resonance of cost and supply - demand factors drives the market to run strongly. However, attention should be paid to terminal orders, production and sales, and transaction situations. The short - term volatile pattern of oil prices has limited support for the cost - end of polyester. The inventory pressure of polyester yarn has been relieved, and future attention should be paid to the stocking rhythm of downstream yarn mills [2][4][5] - The future price of PX may fluctuate or rebound slightly due to the large basis and possible cost impact of oil prices. PTA may face the dual pressure of weakening cost support and insufficient demand, and its price may continue to decline [34] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On May 20, the PX main contract closed at 6,668.0 yuan/ton, down 1.24% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 204.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,732.0 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 268.0 yuan/ton. The closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 65.48 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 62.15 US dollars/barrel. The total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 748.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction volume was 987.53 million meters [3] - Regarding supply, many PX and PTA plants have maintenance plans or have been restarted. The domestic PX plant operating rate is 73%, and the Asian operating rate is 67.9%. The PTA operating rate is around 75.6%, and the polyester operating rate is around 94.2%. Geopolitical risks may cause a rapid increase in crude oil prices [4] Polyester - On May 20, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,506.0 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,585.0 yuan/ton, down 50.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 79.0 yuan/ton. The 15 - day average trading volume of the Light Textile City showed a slight downward trend. The inventory of polyester yarn decreased, and the inventory pressure was not large [5] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The prices of PX, PTA, and short - fiber futures and spot, as well as their trading volume, open interest, basis, and price differences, are presented in detail in the report. The prices of some products such as Brent crude oil, US crude oil, and ethylene glycol remained unchanged on May 20 compared with the previous day. The prices of some polyester products such as polyester bottle chips decreased [6] - The processing spreads of some products such as PTA decreased slightly, and the trading volume of the Light Textile City decreased. The inventory days of polyester yarn decreased [7] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macro Dynamics - On May 20, Atlanta Fed President Bostic reiterated his preference for only one interest rate cut this year; New York Fed President Williams said the recent economic data was very good but the economy was full of uncertainties; Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson treated Moody's downgrade of the US rating as general data for policy - making; Dallas Fed President Logan said the Fed should consider strengthening mechanisms to prevent money - market rate spikes more effectively when the market is under pressure [8] - On May 19, the US one - year inflation expectation in May reached the highest level since 1981; consumer confidence slightly declined to the second - lowest in history but ended four consecutive months of sharp decline. Fed Bostic expected one interest rate cut this year and that the US would not fall into a recession. It was reported that the Fed planned to lay off 10% of its staff in the next few years [8] Supply - Demand (Demand) - On May 20, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 748.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 8.56%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 588.0 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 160.0 million meters. On November 6, the 15 - day average production and sales rate of polyester factories was 53.56% [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts such as PX and PTA futures and basis, spot prices, capacity utilization rates, and processing profits, as well as charts related to short - fiber futures and basis, and industrial chain load rates [10][12][14]