Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-21 09:16Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For Rapeseed Meal: Recently, the US soybean market declined, dragging down domestic meal prices. However, heavy rain in Argentina may damage soybean harvests and boost US soybean prices. In China, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans this month, oil - mill operations have gradually resumed. The short - term market focuses on the tight inventory of old - crop Canadian rapeseed. The USDA report predicts an increase in global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season, which will ease supply and suppress meal prices. After the tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed meal, direct import pressure will decrease, but new imports from India and relatively high short - term inventory will affect prices. Today, rapeseed meal futures prices rose, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - For Rapeseed Oil: The US biofuel blending regulations await approval, and there are concerns about US soybean oil demand. Palm oil prices will be under pressure as the palm oil - producing areas enter the seasonal production - increasing season. In China, the decline in rapeseed imports eases supply pressure, and the increased tariff raises the import cost of Canadian rapeseed oil, limiting future imports. However, high inventory continues to affect prices. The rapeseed oil market shows short - term supply surplus and long - term uncertainty. Today, rapeseed oil futures prices rose and remained range - bound, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9440 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; rapeseed meal was 2552 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; ICE rapeseed was 719.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 15.2 Canadian dollars; domestic rapeseed was 5211 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - Spreads and Positions: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 199 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; for rapeseed meal, it was 219 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were 47537 lots, up 6167 lots; for rapeseed meal, it was - 26609 lots, up 14338 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 1103, unchanged; for rapeseed meal, it was 30947, down 37 [2]. Spot Market - Prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9590 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2470 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9561.25 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 5223.93 yuan/ton, up 108.1 yuan [2]. - Spreads and Ratios: The oil - meal ratio was 3.79, up 0.03. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 195 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; for rapeseed meal, it was - 82 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. The spot spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1340 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 410 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and Imports: The global rapeseed production forecast was 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month was 24.68 million tons, down 8.63 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; for rapeseed meal, it was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Profit and Operation: The import rapeseed crushing profit was 27 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 200,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 17.32%, down 25.19 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 155,500 tons, down 5,000 tons; rapeseed meal was 29,000 tons, down 7,000 tons. The East China rapeseed oil inventory was 637,000 tons, down 12,000 tons; rapeseed meal was 435,400 tons, down 18,800 tons. The Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 80,000 tons, unchanged; the South China rapeseed meal inventory was 248,000 tons, down 9,000 tons [2]. - Delivery Volume: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 27,800 tons, up 20,600 tons; for rapeseed meal, it was 35,800 tons, down 14,300 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly output of feed was 2.7772 million tons, down 66,400 tons; for edible vegetable oil, it was 440,400 tons, down 87,000 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 423.5 billion yuan, down 131.4 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.22%, down 0.26 percentage points; for put options, it was 22.22%, down 0.26 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 20.29%, up 0.96 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 27.02%, up 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 16.01%, down 0.08 percentage points; for put options, it was 16.01%, down 0.06 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 13.16%, down 1.61 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 16.17%, down 0.13 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Rapeseed Futures: On Tuesday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the ICE closed higher due to strong demand. The price increase ranged from 3.7 to 15.6 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - US Soybeans: As of May 18, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 66%, higher than the market expectation of 65%. The US soybean market declined recently, but heavy rain in Argentina may damage soybean harvests [2]. Key Points of Concern - Monitor the rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions reported by Myagric on Monday, as well as the trends of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2].