Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PP2509 closed at 7054 yuan/ton, down 0.03% from the previous settlement price. Supply-side: last week, PP production decreased by 4.00% to 74.86 million tons week-on-week, and capacity utilization decreased by 3.19% to 76.56%. Demand-side: last week, downstream开工率 stopped falling and rebounded, with the average开工率 increasing by 0.33% to 49.83%. This week, PP commercial inventory decreased by 2.61% to 81.67 million tons week-on-week, maintaining a destocking trend with little inventory pressure. Affected by the restart of devices such as Dongguan Juzhengyuan and Maoming Petrochemical, this week's production and capacity utilization are expected to increase week-on-week. In June, the marginal impact of PP maintenance will weaken, and supply pressure is expected to rise. Benefiting from the tariff reduction, downstream product enterprises are actively increasing production, but currently, the PP downstream is seasonally weak, and terminal procurement is cautious, with relatively limited improvement on the demand side. In terms of cost, the nuclear negotiation between the US and Iran is deadlocked, and the US is continuing to promote tariff negotiations with other countries, with international oil prices being strong recently. In the short term, the operating range of PP2509 is expected to be around 7000 - 7090 [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polypropylene was 7054 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 6996 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 6990 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 7054 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. The trading volume of polypropylene (PP) was 230,394 lots, a decrease of 34,506 lots; the open interest was 430,911 lots, an increase of 4,134 lots. The long positions of the top 20 holders were 342,470 lots, an increase of 2,260 lots; the short positions were 387,707 lots, an increase of 4,775 lots; the net long positions were -45,237 lots, a decrease of 2,515 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 6,285 lots, a decrease of 40 lots [2] Spot Market - The CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of PP (fiber/injection molding) was 909 US dollars/ton; the CFR Far East intermediate price of PP (homopolymer injection molding) was 869 US dollars/ton. The duty-paid self-pickup price of PP (drawn grade) in Zhejiang was 7,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR China price of propylene was 806 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Far East price of propane was 569 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The FOB price of naphtha in Singapore was 61.46 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.09 US dollars; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 569.63 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.25 US dollars/ton [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of polypropylene (PP) in petrochemical enterprises was 76.56%, a decrease of 3.19 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The average operating rate of polypropylene was 49.83%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points; the operating rate of plastic weaving was 45.3%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points; the operating rate of injection molding was 56.32%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points; the operating rate of BOPP was 59.93%, an increase of 2.29 percentage points; the operating rate of PP pipes was 36.93%, unchanged; the operating rate of tape master rolls was 50.72%, unchanged; the operating rate of PP non-woven fabrics was 37.35%, a decrease of 0.38 percentage points; the operating rate of CPP was 50%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20-day historical volatility of polypropylene was 10.68%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the 40-day historical volatility was 11.28%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at-the-money put options was 11.11%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money call options was 11.09%, a decrease of 0.78 percentage points [2] Industry News - From May 9th to 15th, domestic polypropylene production was 74.86 million tons, a decrease of 4.00% from the previous week; the polypropylene capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.19 percentage points to 76.56%. From May 9th to 15th, the average operating rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry increased by 0.33 percentage points to 49.83%. As of May 21st, the total commercial inventory of polypropylene in China was 81.67 million tons, a decrease of 2.61% from the previous period [2]
瑞达期货聚丙烯产业日报-20250521