瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20250521

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the HC2510 contract fluctuated and trended stronger. The NDRC has accelerated the introduction of measures to stabilize employment and the economy and promote high - quality development, with most policies to be implemented by the end of June. The weekly hot - rolled coil output decreased by 84,000 tons, the capacity utilization rate remained around 80%, the factory and social inventories both decreased, the total inventory decreased by 175,500 tons, and the apparent demand increased by 200,000 tons. Overall, the terminal demand for hot - rolled coils has strong resilience, but there is a lack of confidence in the long - term, and the market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are below the 0 axis. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,211 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the trading volume was 1,349,258 lots, down 1,615 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was 53,291 lots, up 8,355 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread was - 12 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 150 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the HC main contract basis was 69 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,280 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou was 3,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan was 3,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 80 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 764 yuan/wet ton, up 1 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,240 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 141.6609 million tons, down 726,200 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 652,500 tons, up 41,000 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.6352 million tons, down 72,300 tons; the Hebei billet inventory was 745,100 tons, down 79,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.13%, down 0.51 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 91.74%, down 0.37 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils of sample steel mills was 3.1198 million tons, down 84,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils was 79.69%, down 2.15 percentage points; the factory inventory of hot - rolled coils of sample steel mills was 782,200 tons, down 65,800 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 2.6935 million tons, down 109,700 tons. The monthly domestic crude steel output was 86.02 million tons, down 6.82 million tons; the monthly net steel export volume was 994,000 tons, down 2,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile output was 2.6188 million vehicles, down 387,100 vehicles; the monthly automobile sales were 2.5896 million vehicles, down 325,900 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output was 30.833 million units, down 2.8789 million units; the monthly household refrigerator output was 8.179 million units, down 1.2045 million units; the monthly household washing machine output was 9.651 million units, down 1.3512 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The China - ASEAN Economic and Trade Ministers' Special Meeting was held online on May 20, and both sides announced the completion of the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0. From May 1 - 18, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 932,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12% compared with the same period in May last year and a month - on - month increase of 18%, with a cumulative retail sales of 7.804 million vehicles this year, a year - on - year increase of 8%; the wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 858,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18% compared with the same period in May last year and a month - on - month decrease of 2%, with a cumulative wholesale volume of 9.326 million vehicles this year, a year - on - year increase of 12% [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - The weekly output, factory inventory, and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [2]