Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-21 09:26Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The I2509 contract fluctuated strongly on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, the second rate cut this year, in line with market expectations. In terms of supply and demand, the shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased by 3.188 million tons, the arrival volume decreased by 2.896 million tons, and the inventory at domestic ports continued to decline. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills decreased slightly, and the expectation that pig iron production has peaked is strengthening. Overall, the decline in iron ore port inventory supports the strong operation of ore prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA have retracted to near the 0 axis. For operation, conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 728.50 yuan/ton, up 3.50 yuan; the trading volume was 747,679 lots, up 13,529 lots. The spread between the I 9 - 1 contracts was 35.5 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 14,857 lots, up 2,069 lots. The warehouse receipts of the Dalian Commodity Exchange were 2,300 lots, unchanged. The quotation of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 99.65 US dollars/ton, up 0.25 US dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 829 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines was 809 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 710 yuan/dry ton, unchanged. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 80 yuan, down 1 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 100.35 US dollars/ton, down 0.75 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.39, down 0.01. The estimated import cost was 847 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. The shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 33.478 million tons per week, up 3.188 million tons; the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 22.804 million tons per week, down 2.896 million tons. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 141.6609 million tons per week, down 0.7262 million tons; the inventory of iron ore at sample steel mills was 89.6116 million tons per week, up 0.0218 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of iron ore was 103.14 million tons, up 9.17 million tons. The available days of iron ore were 23 days per week, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines was 416,600 tons per week, up 2,800 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines was 66.41%, up 0.91 percentage points. The inventory of iron ore concentrate at 266 mines was 634,100 tons per week, up 42,500 tons. The BDI index was 1,340, down 7. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 18.45 US dollars/ton, down 0.68 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 7.59 US dollars/ton, down 0.39 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.13% per week, down 0.51 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 91.74% per week, down 0.37 percentage points. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 86.02 million tons, down 6.82 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 23.03%, down 0.44 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 24.60%, up 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 9.47%, down 5.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 9.57%, down 9.71 percentage points [2] Industry News - On May 19, 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 146.2763 million tons, a decrease of 2.5825 million tons from the previous Monday; the total inventory at 45 ports was 140.5563 million tons, a decrease of 2.8525 million tons. The total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 10.578 million tons, a decrease of 2.036 million tons compared with the previous period. From May 12 to May 18, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 22.804 million tons, a decrease of 2.896 million tons compared with the previous period; the total arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 22.713 million tons, a decrease of 0.833 million tons [2]