Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-21 09:22Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the output of restored domestic methanol production capacity exceeds that of overhauled and reduced - capacity production, leading to a slight increase in overall output. The demand in the main downstream demand areas has declined, causing a slight increase in inland enterprise inventories. This week, methanol port inventories have accumulated slightly. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2220 - 2300 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2270 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 73 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 751,479 lots, down 13,899 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 122,841 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 9390 lots, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2310 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2035 yuan/ton, down 52.5 yuan/ton. The East - West price difference is 275 yuan/ton, up 57.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 40 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 259 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 332 US dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 243 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton. The China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference is - 73 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.11 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.22 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - East China port inventory is 32.4 tons, down 5.55 tons; South China port inventory is 15.99 tons, down 2.25 tons. The total port inventory is 49.24 tons, up 0.85 tons. The methanol import profit is 62.47 yuan/ton, down 10.71 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 47.3 tons, down 8.88 tons. Inland enterprise inventory is 273,600 tons, up 35,800 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 88.47%, down 3.7% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 50.87%, up 0.33%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 8.97%, unchanged; the acetic acid operating rate is 89.71%, up 2.13%; the MTBE operating rate is 56.09%, down 5.28%. The olefin operating rate is 83.29%, up 0.74%; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 556 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.67%, down 0.2%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.21%, up 0.03%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is down 0.03%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is down 0.03% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of May 21, the total methanol port inventory in China is 49.24 tons, up 0.85 tons from the previous period. The sample production enterprise inventory is 33.60 tons, up 0.02 tons, a 0.07% increase. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 3.52 tons, down 3.84 tons, a 14.03% decrease. As of May 15, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate is 82.31%, down 0.58% [2].