Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-21 09:21Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On May 21, the SM2509 contract closed at 5792, down 0.03%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese remained stable at 5600. The supply side has production losses and low enthusiasm for spot production. The inventory of imported manganese ore at ports has increased, and the overall arrival of manganese ore in May is expected to increase month - on - month. The downstream hot metal production shows signs of peaking and falling. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 130 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 250 yuan/ton. Steel mills' procurement is cautious, and tender prices continue to fall. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On May 21, the SF2507 contract closed at 5620, down 0.85%. The spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 5510. The ferroalloy production profit is currently negative. The cost support has weakened due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April. The overall demand for steel is still weak. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 120 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 60 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. Group 3: Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 5792 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5620 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract holdings: 582,287 hands, down 9395 hands; SF futures contract holdings: 444,903 hands, down 3619 hands [2]. - Manganese - silicon top 20 net positions: - 32,888 hands, up 3875 hands; Ferrosilicon top 20 net positions: - 30,956 hands, down 202 hands [2]. - SM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 56 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; SF 1 - 9 month contract spread: 46 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 115,203 sheets, down 1846 sheets; SF warehouse receipts: 19,519 sheets, down 120 sheets [2]. 2. Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5560 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5510 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average: 5646 yuan/ton, up 149 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 110 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan [2]. - SM main contract basis: - 192 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block, Tianjin Port: 35 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98%, Northwest): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1020 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu): 670 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 4180,000 tons, up 232,000 tons [2]. 4. Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate: 33.60%, down 3.93%; Ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate: 31.22%, down 1.31% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply: 162,750 tons, down 9275 tons; Ferrosilicon supply: 93,500 tons, down 9400 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturers' inventory: 207,100 tons, up 25,300 tons; Ferrosilicon manufacturers' inventory: 73,700 tons, down 9900 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory: 15.15 days, down 0.29 days; Ferrosilicon national steel mill inventory: 15.20 days, down 0.24 days [2]. - Five major steel types' manganese - silicon demand: 125,632 tons, down 229 tons; Five major steel types' ferrosilicon demand: 20,361.5 tons, up 25.2 tons [2]. 5. Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 84.13%, down 0.51%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 91.74%, down 0.37% [2]. - Crude steel production: 86,019,000 tons, down 6,822,400 tons [2]. 6. Industry News - In April 2025, China's raw coal production was 389,306,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the cumulative production from January to April was 1,584,738,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. From January to April, the cumulative year - on - year production of raw coal in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi increased by 16.6%, 0.6%, and 3.5% respectively [2]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development will accelerate the construction of new urban infrastructure, use information and digital means to improve the intelligence level of infrastructure, and continue to carry out the construction of complete communities [2]. - On May 20, three pilot residential land parcels for "good houses" were transacted, all located in the core area of the main city, with a premium rate exceeding 25% and a total transaction amount of about 4.249 billion yuan [2]. - The north and south blocks of the Simandou Iron Ore Project are expected to achieve an annual output of 30 million tons each in 2025, with a total of 60 million tons. It is expected that by 2026, the output will double to 60 million tons each, with a total output of 120 million tons [2].