乙二醇日报：情绪消化后理性预期回归，乙二醇盘面高位回落等待消息指引-20250521

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current maintenance of ethylene glycol plants has led to an expansion of supply reduction, and the supply - demand structure is relatively good. Polyester production remains at a high level. The result of the China - US trade negotiation exceeded market expectations, the terminal export outlook has been repaired, orders are advanced, and the stocking demand may increase significantly. Under strong expectations, ethylene glycol should be treated with cautious optimism. Continued attention should be paid to the actual arrival rhythm of goods at ports [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - Price: On May 20, the price of the ethylene glycol futures main contract closed at 4,366 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan (-0.73%) from the previous day. The spot price in the East China market also weakened to 4,500 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.64% [2]. - Supply: Multiple ethylene glycol production facilities are under maintenance. As of May 15, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 60.51% (down 8.48% from the previous period). From May 12 - 18, the planned total arrival at major ports was about 5.5 tons [3]. - Demand: The load of polyester factories was 94.2%. The comprehensive operating rate of domestic weaving was around 63.80%, up 63.80% from last week. The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 60.68%, up 0.62% from last week [3]. - Inventory: As of May 18, the inventory at major ports in East China was about 74.3 tons, down 0.8 tons from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Futures and Spot: The futures main contract price decreased by 32 yuan (-0.73%), and the trading volume increased by 9.62%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 75 yuan (-1.64%). The basis increased by 18.60% [5]. - Profit: Coal - based production profit remained stable at - 80 yuan, while ethylene - based and methanol - based production were still in deep losses [5]. - Operating Rate: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol, oil - based, coal - based, and other production methods remained unchanged. The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms also remained stable [5]. - Inventory and Arrival: The inventory at major ports in East China decreased by 2.8 tons (-4.08%), and the arrival volume increased by 2 tons (26.32%) [5]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, and the operating rate of downstream polyester plants, with data sourced from WIND [6][8][11].