外汇专题报告：结售汇双边放量，汇率区间波动

Report Summary Core Views - In April, both sides of foreign exchange settlement and sales volume increased, with the scale of settlement and sales rising simultaneously, and the overall deficit slightly expanding. The significant growth of forward net settlement reflects the improvement of enterprises' settlement expectations and more proactive hedging behavior [3]. - The US dollar index fluctuated weakly, and the Federal Reserve maintained a wait - and - see stance. After the withdrawal of the counter - cyclical factor, the fluctuation range of the RMB exchange rate increased [3]. Data Core Highlights Foreign Exchange Market Supply - Demand Structure - In April 2025, the bank foreign exchange settlement and sales deficit was $4.257 billion, slightly expanding from the previous value of - $1.967 billion. The scale of both settlement and sales increased, indicating higher activity in enterprises' foreign exchange transactions. The surplus of bank customer - related foreign exchange settlement and sales expanded from $96 million to $589.3 million, while the deficit of banks' own foreign exchange settlement and sales expanded from - $2.063 billion to - $10.15 billion [4]. - The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB rose 0.34% month - on - month, and the market trading activity declined slightly, with the average spot inquiry trading volume falling to $42.234 billion [4]. Forward Transaction Structure - In April, the forward market continued to recover. The forward settlement signing amount increased by $4.358 billion month - on - month, and the forward sales signing amount decreased by $2.193 billion, driving the cumulative outstanding forward net settlement amount to expand from $903 million to $5.231 billion. The forward purchase performance amount increased by $7.519 billion, much higher than the increase in settlement performance [5]. - The forward settlement hedging ratio rose to 8.59%, the highest point this year, while the forward purchase hedging ratio dropped to 4.3% [5]. Securities Investment - In April, the foreign - related receipts and payments under securities investment changed from a surplus of $7.37 billion to a deficit of $12.493 billion. The trading volumes of both the Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect and the Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect decreased, and the two - way difference narrowed. However, the bond custody volume of overseas investors in RMB bonds rose to 29,781.5 billion yuan [6]. Goods Trade - In April, the goods trade surplus narrowed, dragging down the foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus. The global manufacturing PMI fell from 52 in March to 50.8 in April, and China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49, returning to the contraction range. The US manufacturing PMI remained at 51.2, while Japan and the Eurozone were still in the contraction range [6]. Exchange Rate Views - The US inflation shows an initial slowdown trend, but the Fed maintains a cautious policy stance. The US core CPI in April fell to 2.8% year - on - year, and the PPI also declined month - on - month. However, the Fed did not adjust its policy, and the US dollar index fell to around 100 [8]. - The easing of tariffs boosted expectations, and the exchange rate fluctuated more after the withdrawal of the counter - cyclical factor. In May, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated around 7.20. After the withdrawal of the counter - cyclical factor, the exchange rate was more driven by market supply and demand, and the short - term fluctuation range increased. The 1 - year USDCNY swap point dropped to - 2160, and the RMB exchange rate may show a two - way shock pattern in the short term [8].