TRIP.COM(09961) 国证国际·2025-05-21 09:53Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 591 (USD 76) [3][6][23] Core Insights - The company reported a 16% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, aligning with market expectations, while adjusted net profit rose by 3%, exceeding expectations by 9% due to lower-than-expected marketing expenses [2][3] - Domestic hotel bookings showed a robust growth of 20% year-on-year during the May Day holiday, and international bookings are expected to maintain high growth rates, contributing to long-term revenue support [3][4] - The company is adjusting its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025, projecting a 15% year-on-year revenue growth, with accommodation bookings expected to grow by 16% and transportation bookings by 9% [3][5] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 net revenue reached RMB 139 billion, a 16% increase year-on-year, with accommodation bookings up 23% and transportation ticketing revenue up 8% [2][3] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 42 billion, reflecting a 3% increase year-on-year, with a net profit margin maintained above 30% [2][3] - The company expects continued growth in Q2, benefiting from a stable supply and user engagement, with international OTA business projected to maintain high growth rates [3][5] Business Outlook - The domestic business outlook remains stable, while international operations are in an investment phase, with expectations for revenue growth to outpace the overall tourism market [3][4] - The company plans to expand its market presence from Asia-Pacific to the Middle East and Europe, with international business expected to contribute over 20% of total revenue in the medium to long term [3][5] Shareholder Returns - The company has repurchased USD 84 million worth of shares year-to-date, with a remaining buyback capacity of USD 516 million, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [3][5]