瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250521

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, the domestic Northeast region's mid - month rotation acquisition by Sinograin supports the spot market, but increased auction supply, weakening futures, and compressed profits of deep - processing enterprises lead to a downward adjustment of purchase prices. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, new wheat harvesting and the price proximity of wheat and corn reduce corn demand. The corn futures price has recently declined and short - term trading is recommended [2][3]. - For corn starch, due to high raw material costs, large industry losses, and competition from substitutes, the industry's operating rate is decreasing. The spot price is relatively firm, but downstream demand is limited, and inventory remains high. The starch futures price has been weak recently, and short - term trading is also recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2324 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2659 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan [2]. - Corn futures net long position of the top 20 holders is - 101225 hands, down 3202 hands; corn starch futures net long position of the top 20 holders is - 4035 hands, down 100 hands [2]. - Corn registered warehouse receipts are 212035 hands, down 100 hands; corn starch registered warehouse receipts are 26610 hands, down 10 hands [2]. - The spread between the main contracts CS - C is 391 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. 3.2 Outer - market Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 454.5 cents/bushel, up 7.5 cents; CBOT corn total weekly position is 1589429 contracts, up 40903 contracts [2]. - CBOT non - commercial net long position of corn is 18106 contracts, down 97793 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2373.92 yuan/ton, down 1.28 yuan; the factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2690 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - The FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import CIF price of corn is 2077.38 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the corn main contract is 49.92 yuan/ton, down 13.28 yuan; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 31 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 377.63 million tons, unchanged; in Brazil is 126 million tons, unchanged; in China is 294.92 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The corn inventory in southern ports is 143.9 million tons, down 6.4 million tons; in northern ports is 495 million tons, down 13 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of corn is 8 million tons, unchanged; the monthly output of feed is 2777.2 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The monthly export volume of corn starch is 20.35 thousand tons, down 0.93 thousand tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 147 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of deep - processed corn is 118.55 million tons, down 3.42 million tons; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 42.15%, up 0.93% [2]. - The starch enterprise operating rate is 55.88%, down 1.29% [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 9.36%, down 0.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.28%, down 0.11% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 10.93%, down 0.03%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 10.93%, down 0.02% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - From May 1 - 16, Brazil's corn export volume was 32,989 tons, higher than 2,863 tons a week ago and 413,374 tons in May last year [2]. - As of May 18, the US corn sowing progress in 18 states accounting for 92% of the national sowing area was 78%, compared with 62% last week, 67% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 73% [2]. 3.9 Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory data on Thursday and Friday [3].