碳酸锂：持仓创新高，极高分歧水平暗示风险

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - Lithium ore prices have been declining due to supply and demand factors. The supply side has a competitive pattern, and the demand side shows signs of weakness, with reduced new energy vehicle sales growth and increased market risk aversion [1]. - During the price - decline of lithium carbonate, the industry chain is in a wait - and - see state. Downstream procurement is weak, and upstream salt factories have a strong willingness to hold prices. The futures price is under short - selling pressure [2]. - In the short term, caution is needed for the short - selling trend of lithium carbonate, especially near the 60,000 integer mark. High positions indicate large market divergence, and cost - related factors of Australian mines may cause short - squeeze situations [3]. - The Trump administration's policies and tariff conflicts have a negative impact on the lithium carbonate market. Although tariffs have decreased, they are still at a high level, and industrial policies may slow down the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the US [3]. Key Points by Topics Reasons for the Decline in Lithium Ore Prices - The supply side has formed a competitive pattern among South American salt lakes, Chinese - funded mines, and Australian mines since 2023. When demand weakens, there is a situation of competing to sell goods, leading to a continuous decline in prices [1]. - On the demand side, the export rush since the second half of last year has shown signs of fatigue. Trump's attitude towards the new energy industry and tariff concerns have increased market risk aversion, and the sales growth of new energy vehicles has slowed down [1]. Supply - Demand Situation in the Lithium Battery Industry Chain - During the price decline, downstream enterprises have weak procurement willingness, and demand is mainly met by customer - supplied and long - term agreements. Upstream salt factories have a strong willingness to hold prices, and there is only some trading between traders and downstream enterprises [2]. - The expectation of export rush is suppressed by high inventory, and the continuous decline of ore prices weakens cost support, resulting in a short - selling pattern for futures prices [2]. Downward Space and Price Stabilization Factors of Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, caution is required for the short - selling trend of lithium carbonate, especially near the 60,000 integer mark. High positions indicate large market divergence, and cost - related factors of Australian mines may cause short - squeeze situations [3]. Impact of Trump Policies and Tariff Conflicts - After the Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Statement on May 12, US tariffs on Chinese lithium batteries have decreased. The tariff on Chinese vehicle - used lithium batteries has dropped to 58.4%, and the non - vehicle - used lithium battery tariff has dropped to about 41%, but the overall level is still high [3]. - Trump's industrial policies, such as withdrawing from the Inflation Reduction Act, may slow down the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the US and have a negative impact on the overall demand for lithium carbonate [3].