成交趋缓，盘面小幅波动

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current sentiment of the urea market is supported by the peak demand season, and the market will remain oscillating and bullish in the short to medium term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent agricultural demand for fertilizer preparation. As the demand season gradually ends, the market may weaken [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea opened high and moved low today, with intraday oscillations moving upward. Upstream factory quotes are stable with a downward trend, new order transactions are slow to follow up, and market sentiment is cautious. On the supply side, this week's production continues to fluctuate around 200,000 tons per day. Xinjiang Tianyun and Jinjiang have temporarily halted production, while Quansheng has resumed output, resulting in a slight decrease in daily production. Under the export policy, the export time is divided into two phases: May - July 2025 and August - September 2025, and all export businesses must complete customs clearance procedures by October 15, 2025. A local inspection system for origin is implemented. On the demand side, agricultural distributors are currently cautious about fertilizer preparation as it is not yet the peak season. The fertilizer collection of compound fertilizer factories has improved, and they are currently in the production phase of summer fertilizers, with an increasing operating rate. It is expected that production will gradually stop at the end of May or early June after the peak demand for summer fertilizers, and the operating rate will decline, weakening the support for urea demand. There has been a slight accumulation of inventory this period, and the demand side has weakened slightly. In response to export news, port inventory has slightly increased, but factory inspections will be carried out to avoid early port concentration. [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea contract 2509 opened at 1,853 yuan/ton, fluctuated, and finally closed at 1,856 yuan/ton, forming a positive candlestick with a change of 0.22%. The trading volume was 224,598 lots (5,429 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, there were 3,804 long positions and 4,720 short positions. Hongta Futures increased its net long positions by 2,655 lots, Zhongtai Futures decreased its net long positions by 1,649 lots, Fangzhengzhong Futures increased its net short positions by 3,006 lots, and Haizheng Futures decreased its net short positions by 1,751 lots. On May 21, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,548, a decrease of 24 compared to the previous trading day, with Anhui Zhongneng (factory warehouse) decreasing by 24. [2] - Spot: Upstream factory quotes are stable with a downward trend, new order transactions are slow to follow up, and market sentiment is cautious. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei range from 1,820 to 1,850 yuan/ton. [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Today, the mainstream spot market quotes are stable, while the futures closing price has increased. Based on the Shandong region, the basis has decreased compared to the previous trading day, and the basis for the September contract is 35 tons (-16 yuan/ton). [6] - Supply Data: According to Feiyitong data, on May 21, 2025, the national daily urea production was 199,500 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons compared to the previous day. [9] - Enterprise Inventory Data: According to Longzhong Information, as of May 21, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 917,400 tons, an increase of 100,200 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month increase of 12.26%. [10] - Pre - sale Order Days: According to Longzhong Information, as of May 21, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.94 days, a decrease of 0.35 days compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.56%. [10]