Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 40.47 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.723 billion for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, and an adjusted EBITDA of RMB 1.324 billion, up 16.1%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1]. - The growth in adjusted EBITDA is attributed to the delivery of backlog orders and the rapid advancement of new orders, alongside the completion of the first ABS project, which confirmed asset disposal gains of RMB 1.057 billion [1]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation improvement and performance enhancement driven by the growth in AI inference demand as domestic AI applications flourish [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - As of Q1 2025, the company operated in an area of 610,685 square meters, with an IT capacity of approximately 1,313 MW, and a cabinet utilization rate of 75.7%, reflecting a 1.9 percentage point increase [2]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 48.6%, primarily due to a decrease in operating costs [2]. - The company expects total revenue for 2025 to be between RMB 11.29 billion and RMB 11.59 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.4% to 12.3% [3]. Debt and Leverage - The net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio decreased to 6.6 times in Q1 2025 from 7.7 times in Q1 2024, indicating a gradual reduction in leverage following the completion of the ABS project [3]. - The company plans to actively promote the issuance of public REITs, which is expected to further lower leverage and reduce interest expenses, thereby improving performance [3]. Long-term Outlook - The report maintains profit forecasts, projecting adjusted EBITDA for 2025 to be between RMB 5.19 billion and RMB 5.39 billion, with expected growth rates of 6.4% to 10.5% [4]. - The SOTP valuation method was used, adjusting the 2025 EV/EBITDA target valuation from 15 times to 16 times for domestic operations, reflecting improved cash flow from increased cabinet utilization and REIT projects [4]. - The target price of HKD 40.47 per share is based on a total equity value of RMB 57.562 billion, considering both domestic and international business valuations [11].
万国数据-SW（09698）：EBITDA增长提速，上架率提升