Elia：埃利亚2025年第一季度交易更新-20250521

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Elia, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [6]. Core Insights - Elia's FY25 guidance includes a net profit range of €490-540 million, which aligns closely with the consensus estimate of €526 million [8][3]. - The company provided divisional guidance for the first time, which is expected to validate consensus expectations [8][3]. - The 2025 capital expenditure (capex) outlook has been slightly revised down in both Belgium and Germany, with Belgium's capex expected at €1.5 billion (previously €1.7 billion) and Germany's at €3.6 billion (previously €3.8 billion) [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Elia's net profit guidance for 50 Hertz is set at €380-420 million, compared to a consensus of €405 million [3]. - ETB's net profit is expected to be in the range of €255-285 million, against a consensus of €257 million [3]. - The non-regulated segment is projected to incur a loss of €35-45 million, with a positive contribution from Nemo Link Interconnector of approximately €25 million [3]. Capital Expenditure - The revised capex for Belgium is €1.5 billion and for Germany is €3.6 billion, reflecting project delays [2]. Market Position - Elia's current market capitalization is approximately €10.073 billion, with a price target set at €120.00 [6].